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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (1020)	10/5/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

Thanks, Cisco. We really needed another high tech debacle eight hours before Motorola announces. 'tis an ill wind that blows from Schaumburg... we're visiting sixties if Motorola announces contraction in "mobile products" division. Of course, my spin is that this would only reflect Nokia's strength. But the possibility of a stampede out of all mobile telecom stock is very real after Alacatel, Nortel and Philips shockers. This will only set the stage for Nokia's 3Q annoucement, of course. A year ago, everyone was making money hand over fist... maybe after Oct 23 investors start to realize that these companies have very different future prospects. Motorola launched new, expensive, high-end GSM models for Europe and Asia before this quarter. The latest Startac coming in under 90 grams. The first GSM 900/1800 dual mode phones. Problem is, Nokia unveiled models competing directly with these phones at the almost precisely same time. The 8810 is running circles around Startac. The 6150 is by far the lightest, most energy-conservative GSM dual mode phone on the market, plus it has the box office appeal of a 6100 series design. There is a possibility that these handsets have ploughed under Motorola's anticipated resurgence. Motorola's numbers should give the first indication about whether this company's turnaround really is on track. If they show flat sales growth despite several pricey new models, that will be a major downer. If they can deliver 5-10% growth in mobile products, they are at least pulling back from the brink, even though still losing market share. If they show continued sales contraction, God help us all... I don't think investors will stop to reflect on the fact that Nokia is the only company with brand new alternatives for Motorola's new entries and thus the main beneficiary of Mot's problems. They will probably bolt. If we see a knee-jerk panic and Nokia at 67 just two weeks before this company will announce 50% sales increase and 60% profit surge, calling this a buying opportunity would be something of an understatement. Hold that thought as darkness spreads forth from Schaumburg. Tero