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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DMaA who wrote (8630)	9/30/1998 10:25:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

The split in Brazil seems to have tamed this monster to some degree. Sure looks like she wants to go up. US listings next week? sf

To: DMaA who wrote (8630)	9/30/1998 10:26:00 AM
From: MGV	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

If I were writing for thestreet.com, seeking to spur plausible controversy and gain readership, I'd write what he wrote just as forcefully. The point is: always consider the perspective of the source of what you read. Conventional wisdom sells guys. Its also a deathknell to mediocracy. There are times to ride conventional wisdom while waiting for the best opportunity to zag while the others zig. (OK, I'll hammer this - TBR is in my view a splendid zag!) If you turn out to be wrong, make sure it isnt based on someone else's analysis. (Getting off soapbox now).

To: DMaA who wrote (8630)	9/30/1998 10:33:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil's forex markets lose $455 million Tuesday Reuters, Wednesday, September 30, 1998 at 08:45 SAO PAULO, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Brazil lost another $455 million through its foreign exchange markets Tuesday, traders said, as dollars continued to flow out of the country. Some $40 million left through the commercial forex market, according to the Central Bank, while another $415 million left through the floating forex market, traders said. Brazil has registered more than $30 billion in net dollar outflows since the beginning of August as investors yanked their money out of the Brazil and other emerging markets on growing concern amid the financial crisis in Russia. Brazil responded with a sharp hike in interest rates to almost 50 percent in a bid to plug the dollar flight that was draining reserves and pressuring the currency. The measure, which slowed outflows but failed to stop them, is seen preventing considerable damage to reserves through Sunday elections, at which point the government will have to present more far-reaching economic reforms, according to economists. shasta.darlington@reuters.com)) Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: DMaA who wrote (8630)	9/30/1998 10:34:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil's Central Bank sets dlr buy/sell auction Reuters, Wednesday, September 30, 1998 at 09:03 SAO PAULO, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Brazil's Central Bank announced a dollar auction requiring buy and sell offers in the commercial foreign exchange market to lower its reais-dollar mini-band, dealers said. The current mini-band was set on Friday at between 1.1750 and 1.1860 reais per dollar. The Central Bank usually changes the mini-band five to seven times each month through buy/sell auctions. Before the auction Wednesday, the real was asked at 1.1851 per dollar and offered at 1.1853 per dollar, they added. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: DMaA who wrote (8630)	9/30/1998 10:35:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

Brazil's Central Bank lowers its reais mini-band Reuters, Wednesday, September 30, 1998 at 09:24 SAO PAULO, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Brazil's Central Bank lowered its mini-band on the real currency by buying dollars at 1.1760 and selling at 1.1870 reais per dollar in the commercial foreign exchange market, dealers said. The previous mini-band was set on Friday at between 1.1750 and 1.1860 reais per dollar. Wednesday's auction was the seventh time this month the bank has nudged the mini-band lower and represents a 0.08 percent decline from the previous mini-band. The Central Bank usually changes the mini-band five to seven times each month. So far this month, the Central Bank has shifted the mini-band 0.59 percent lower. In the last six months, the Central Bank has lowered the mini-band between 0.60 percent and 0.63 percent each month. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: DMaA who wrote (8630)	9/30/1998 10:36:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Respond to of 22640

Brazil shrs slide from start following Asia slumps Reuters, Wednesday, September 30, 1998 at 09:40 SAO PAULO, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Brazil's key stock index Bovespa (INDEX:$BVSP.X) fell 3.12 percent in early trade Wednesday, as investors liquidated their holdings eyeing weaker equity prices in Asian and European markets, brokers said. The Bovespa was down at 6,655 points 17 minutes into the session. "Local bourses are doomed to follow overseas when there is no positive news on the domestic front," said one trader. Sao Paulo's benchmark Telebras receipts preferred (SAO:RCTB40) were down 4.0 percent at 84 reais, while Petrobras preferred (SAO:PETR4) lost 4.76 percent to 120 reais and Eletrobras (SAO:ELET6) shed 4.49 percent to 25.50 reais. In the derivatives market, Bovespa futures' October contracts were down 3.75 percent at 6,680 points. In the debt market, Brazil's dollar denominated C-bonds <BRAZILC=RR>, traded in New York, were down 1.5 points to 60 at 1030 local/1330 GMT. Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service

To: DMaA who wrote (8630)	9/30/1998 2:15:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22640

I thought theStreet.com article on Brazil was very interesting. I think a close read suggests a rally right after the election is likely. Amid bailout talk and action. But then it will all collapse, perhaps by year end, because confidence will slip rapidly as Brazilians sit back on their rear ends and dawdle. The legislature will continue to resist making the cuts in public sector jobs and pensions that it resisted in the summer before recessing. The near 8% budget defecit looms. Markets will realize this is unsustainable and that the IMF's 30 bil or so (not even sure they have that much now) won't do it. And whatever Rubin and Clinton might want to do, a la Mexico, Congress will not now let them. Crash. Around year end. That's the between the lines, it seems to me. (But things have a way of moving faster than we thought these days, don't they?) Doug