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To: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9 who wrote (54328)	9/30/1998 12:05:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 58727

just a reminder...we did go below 8026 print yesterday I have been seeing some people dog jerry favors over the past week or so...hmmmmmmm remember his top to top date ends Oct 6 I believe.. o: +Electric (16023 ) From: +dennis michael patterson Monday, Sep 28 1998 11:13PM ET Reply # of 16081 FAVORS! Jerry Favors Analysis - Monday, September 28, 1998 8 p.m. Last evening we stated that we should see some further rally in this time frame. At the highs today the Dow was up 130 points. We closed up 80 points. Today was a fair day for the Dow but not so great for the market as a whole. The breadth at the close showed only 484 more advances for the day than declines. That is not strong action. The Nasdaq at the highs was up 26 pts, the equivalent of a 120 point rally in the Dow. However the Nasdaq closed down 4.37. Once again there were significantly more new lows for the day than new highs. However the dominant factor in the market this week will be whether or not the Fed decides to lower interest rates tomorrow. We have no crystal ball when it comes to the Fed. If the Fed does decide to lower rates that could spark a strong rally,at least short term. We still have a short term projection calling for 8345 plus or minus 91 points intraday. The top of the 21-Day 3 1/2% Exponential Trading Band today was 8319 intraday. The top of the band tomorrow should be in the area of 8339 intraday. That is where the Dow will encounter significant resistance to any rally. There are still a few technical considerations which could support the case for higher prices short term. The Trin-5 today closed at 5.79,still close to an oversold reading. When the Trin-5 is near or above 6.00 you will normally soon see some further rally in the Dow. Today's 5.79 reading is still close enough to 6.00 that it could support some further rally. The 5-Day RSI on the Dow closed at 61.79. The RSI does not reach overbought territory until it exceeds 70 so this too would allow for some further rally short term. Any rally tomorrow morning above 8154 on a print basis will give a short term buy signal off the hourly charts. However if so that signal would only be good for tomorrow only and would be cancelled entirely if the Dow falls below 8026 on a print basis. Our bottom line is that we do not want to go short ahead of any possible Fed easing tomorrow. We want the Fed news to be totally behind us before we go short. We believe it is now just a matter of days before the time comes for us to go short. Stock traders we will give you a list of candidates over the next couple of days. Mutual fund switchers will be going long the Rydex Ursa Fund. We will also be shorting the Dow Diamonds. To: +dennis michael patterson (16046 ) From: +dennis michael patterson Tuesday, Sep 29 1998 8:03PM ET Reply # of 16081 Electric/BEEBS!! Favors posts tonight that he will be short on THURSDAY. He wants to give the M one more day to rally. Here is what he said: Jerry Favors Analysis - Tuesday, September 29, 1998 8 p.m. Last evening we discussed the fact that an easing of interest rates by the Fed was likely and that if the Fed eased it would suggast some further rally in the Dow. The Fed decided to lower rates by a 1/4 of a point. However the Fed easing did not spark a significant rally in the Dow. The Dow closed down 27.04 points for the day. However it could be a mistake to take today's action as definative as to how the market will eventually respond to the new Fed Policy. In terms of the stock market what appears to be most obviuos reponse is not necesarily the most accurate. The most important consideration on the market came from whether the Fed decided to lower rates or not. The Fed did decide to lower rates but not as much as the market had hoped. The Dow was down as much as 93 points today but closed down only 28.32. As disappointed as the market may have been that the cut in rates was not larger than it was the market did not fall apart. Some further rise in stock prices is still probable near near term because we do believe lower interest rates are still probable . However just as lower interest rates in Japan did not halt the Bear Market lower interest rates here in the US will not prevent a Bear Market. The question will be whether the lower rates here in the US can prevent a serious market downturn. We do not believe so. For now we will give the market one more day but by Thursday we will want to begin shorting this market, rally or no rally. Next Previous o: +manny t (53889 ) From: +lisa Friday, Sep 25 1998 3:39PM ET Reply # of 54329 cnbc story some brokerage houses may have sold forward calls on the income for this hedge fund which only worsens the debacle.... favors coming up on CNBC says bear market rally after fed lowers but it will fail... top to top count key date 9/30 25 to Oct 6 range... dont think we have seen final high in this time frame...maybe 8300 to 8400 and sometime next week 21 day 3 1/2 exp. trading band top 532 I think he is talking about the composite on that...they had New York something or other on the graph..