To: Ken Twining who wrote (1119 ) 9/30/1998 3:22:00 PM From: Anthony Wong Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14638
Networking stocks come unraveled By Jeffry Bartash, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 2:33 PM ET Sep 30, 1998 NewsWatch NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Shares of networking companies short-circuited Wednesday on fears that the stellar growth the industry has enjoyed in recent years may be starting to wane. Such concerns were triggered by comments from Northern Telecom (NT) executives on Tuesday that third-quarter revenue won't be as high as expected -- even though earnings are on track to meet Wall Street projections. Nortel cited the slowdown in Asia and currency fluctuations. Still, investors are especially jittery after a surprise announcement earlier in September by Alcatel (ALA) of France that 1998 profits would fall short of expectations. Wednesday afternoon, Nortel was down 5 1/8, or 14 percent, to 30 3/4. Alcatel was off 15/16 to 17 1/8. Other networking companies fell in tandem. Tellabs (TLAB), for example, plunged 5 3/8 to 39 1/4. BT Alex. Brown cut the stock to a "market perform" from a "buy." Lucent Technologies (LU) fell 5 1/2 to 69. Pairgain (PAIR) sagged 1 3/8 to 8 11/16. And ADC Telecommunications (ADCT) tumbled 2 1/8 to 21 5/8. Even Cisco Systems (CSCO), the dominant data networking company, has suffered, losing 3 to 61 5/8. Getting their Bells rung? What's causing the greater concern is Nortel's hint that sales to the regional Bell operating companies might not rise as fast in future quarters. That's what prompted BT Alex. Brown to cut its Tellabs rating. In recent years, the Bells have been big buyers of networking equipment as they geared up to broaden their offerings of data, Internet and other hot-selling services. Since passage of the 1996 Telecommunications Act, companies have been intensifying efforts to expand their services and geographical coverage. U.S. lawmakers hope that, eventually, local, long-distance, wireless, cable and Internet companies will all compete for each other's business. Equipment suppliers are seen, in Wall Street parlance, as the equivalent of arms dealers, providing the "bullets" and ammunition for the telecom providers to "fight" their wars. The trend toward competition has been a godsend for networking firms. Moreover, the economic turmoil in Asia is causing purchases of telecom equipment in that region to weaken, another major concern, since many of those countries possess inadequate national networks and have been seeking to upgrade. "We see a slowing U.S. market and uncertainties overseas, which creates risk for 1999," analyst Nick Theodosopoulos of Warburg Dillon Read told clients. He also cut his rating on Tellabs and ADC to "hold" from "buy." Unfairly tarnished Other analysts, however, argue that investors are painting the telecom providers with too broad a brush. "Guilt-by-association weakness in other names, such as Tellabs and ADC Telecommunications, appears to ignore the different product, customer and market focus of these players," Eric Buck of Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette told his clients. He said he tends to have a "stronger preference for the more focused suppliers, including ADC and Tellabs," and urges investors to be "more aggressive" in buying those stocks. That doesn't mean he's giving up on Nortel, either. "We believe that weakness in Nortel, while indicative of some near-term concerns especially in international markets, does not reflect the company's longer- term growth opportunities." He is maintaining his "buy" rating.