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Technology Stocks : RATIONAL SOFTWARE- BUY OR HOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Griffin who wrote (2642)	9/30/1998 9:31:00 PM
From: ratlong	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3115

I considered the following is my post... 1) He has delivered predictable results the last three quarters- read the quarterly reports or listen to the conference calls. 2) He has backlogged revenues the past three quarters 3) He could have blown away his numbers the last three quarters but he didn't- purely because of the lessons he learned- he backlogged. 4) He has passed on an obvious acquistion. The market was screaming for RATL to buy LGWX and he passed because he knew WS wouldn't stand for it. 5) He hosted analysts and institutions for a day long session in CA. I heard it was very well received. 6) Volume has been higher on up days and lower on sell offs 7) Stock price has doubled since shortly after the debacle 8) Stock price has held its position while rest of space is off by minimum of 50% Exceeding estimates is not the only answer to the analysts. Currently, in this market, analysts want shelter. They want companies that CANNOT miss earnings. Right now, he cannot miss earnings because of the backlog. Also, if he guides them higher and they move their estimates higher and he hits them, he essentially exceeds. Confidence is a tough thing to quantify. Remember, stock price has doubled in the past year. I don't know whether he has analyst confidence, but he sure has stabilized his footing from a year ago. I do agree with you that he has not erased the overall skepticsm, but he is well on his way. With another quarter like the last three, he will go along way to turning people around...