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To: patrick tang who wrote (15331)	9/30/1998 3:47:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

Yup I do think the rate can and should go down more. I suspect they may push the rate lower before the next meeting (I think they can do this if they want). The American consumer is propping up the world economies in a large sense so we are on that fine line again between impending unmitigated disaster and a soft landing. Funny how the Gov't announces a 70 billion surplus today. And how my TOL reported a few weeks ago the strongest YOY gains in earnings. This is a very rapid decceleration of USSEconomy Supertanker. The good news (I think) is that this may not last long and I suspect the techs may have discounted a good chunk of this already. Still keeping my eyes on the semi-equips because they are the most vulnerable group that I am aware of and I want to see how they react to crummy news. They are basing for the most part and so there is plenty of time but I am keeping an eye on them more so for sentiment. The bigger caps should get thrashed some more. You know things are reaching a bottom when you hear ads on the radio from banks telling people to move money into money market funds because of the instability in the stock markets. (Also wanted to add that HRC may have the Medicare thing as well and so may have nothing to do with any slowdown in the economy. These are strong stocks [invulnerable stocks at one time] getting killed. Then again they may portend ominous warnings ....) Shane.