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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Judy who wrote (16106)	9/30/1998 6:56:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

FAVORS for tonight. Jerry Favors Analysis - Wednesday, September 30, 1998 8 p.m. The Dow was down from the opening bell this morning and at the lows the Dow was down as much as 255 points. We closed down 237.90 points. Today was a somewhat difficult day for us. We have told you that we expect a major breakdown in stock prices during the month of October. We in fact still have downside projections calling for 6703 plus or minus 270 points intraday in the Dow. That projection is due during the month of October.The Bradley called for a low near September 21 and a rally into September 28 plus or minus 2 days in each case. The Dow in fact reached an intraday low of 7653 on September 21 exactly and rallied 600 points to an intraday high of 8253 on September 29,within 1 day of the Bradley target. The Bradley now turns straight down until late October,in a crashing type pattern. This does not mean there will be no strong rally attempts during this time frame. There could well be a strong rally attempt in the next few days. As bearish as we are for the month of October we still must allow for a possible strong rally attempt early in the month before we really begin to crash. Despite the fact that many of our key cycles are pointing down into late October we are concerned about the Trading Index indicators. For instance we know the Trin-5 reaches extreme oversold territory when it rises above 6.00.Under normal circumstances a Trin-5 reading between 6.00 and 7.00 is enough to suggest the Dow is near some sort of short term low. Today the Trin-5 closed at 8.2 .We cannot impress upon you how severely oversold a reading of that magnitude truly is.The Trin-5 is one of our most reliable indicators. For the benefit of our new subscribers it is simply a 5-Day moving sum of the daily trading index closings. Ordinarily any reading above 6.00 is enough to suggest the Dow is near at least a short term low. Today's 8.2 reading is one of the most oversold readings in several years,except for the 1997 mini-crash. The only way a reading as severe as today's would not suggest we were near some sort of short term low is if the Dow is beginning a crash,or at least a mini-crash similar to that of October 1997.Now keep in mind that we do believe a crash in October of this year will occur. The question is whether or not a crash is about to begin right now? From our perspective the only way a Trin-5 reading as severe as today's would not suggest some sort of at least very short term low is if we are beginning a crash right in this time frame. Perhaps we are but there are reasons for us to be at least somewhat suspicious. For instance while the Dow closed down 237 points today the breadth showed 1910 declines to 1191 advances,not even 2 to 1 negative. The closing breadth should be much more negative if we are truly beginning a crash right here. During a true crash the breadth should be at least greater than 3 to 1 negative,and probably more. We did not see that kind of breadth today.Perhaps it will come in tomorrow but until it does we must not become too excited about any short term decline here. We could still see a violent upside reversal which catches most of the shorts by surprise and causes them to cover before we begin to truly breakdown to new lows.It is this possibility which causes us not to jump to the short side too aggressively just yet. A decline below 7653 intraday anytime from here on would be a problem for us. If this occurs and we are not yet short we would have to go 50% short with a stop of 8254 intraday. But we would take no more than a 50% position under these circumstances. Also watch the Transports as any decline below 2592.69 there will be bearish,at least short term. If there is some sort to any further sharp decline tomorrow there is some support near 7726 plus or minus 30 points intraday in the Dow. Our bottom line is that we are very bearish for the month of October, looking for a decline below 6700. However very short term we are not totally convinced the breakdown has truly started just yet. There may be one more rally attempt in early October before we begin to crash. We are going to put on a 2:45 EST update for short term traders tomorrow. For stock traders our shorting recommendations include American Express, MMM, Boston Scientific, Bristol Myers, Avnet, The Limited Stores, Deere, Coca-Cola, Hewlett Packard, Honeywell, Halliburton and Merrill Lynch. We will be adding to that list once we are convinced the real collapse is underway. We are releasing the names of these shorts only for those of you who wish to study the charts on each stock before shorting. If you have not shorted stocks before, we do not recommend it to you here. These suggestions are only for those traders familiar with the risk of shorting stocks. We also want to go short the Dow Diamonds if the Dow breaks 7653 intraday. Please do not call the office to ask about the Dow Diamonds. Call your broker and he can explain the Diamonds to you. Basically if the Dow goes down the Diamonds will go down and you will eventually make a profit on your position. If you are unfamiliar with shorting stocks we recommend the purchase of the Rydex Ursa Fund. If the market does decline significantly in October the Ursa Fund will rise in value. But again call your brokers and ask them to explain how the Ursa Fund works. We cannot do so in detail here. But we want you to take no action on any of the above until you have talked with your broker and clearly understand how each of the above works and what the risks are.

To: Judy who wrote (16106)	9/30/1998 8:45:00 PM
From: Sonki	Respond to of 42787

judy, i also havae that fund. a month ago i switched from brokerage to energy fund as i do not have time to shop around for drillers.. orcl: here is the link. Message 5848986 .i did some scouting.. and found out orcl is hosting business and finac srv sw on theri machine and clients use the sw and hw all from orcl site. w/out spending a dime for hw /sw etc. just the services. Orcl said... We already have a number of customer candidates. What we want to do is get several customers from the same industry as opposed to one customer from every industry. So we'll try to get a number of customers that will line up in a supply chain for electronics manufacturing, because we have a lot of electronics manufacturers already running on our applications. Sun, Cisco and Dell all run our applications. Much of their supply chain, such as Quantum and Seagate, run our applications.