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To: tom pope who wrote (16527)9/30/1998 5:15:00 PM
From: Susan Saline  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53068
 
and on the plus side too!



To: tom pope who wrote (16527)9/30/1998 7:20:00 PM
From: DanZ  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53068
 
Market.

Tom,

I made a similar observation in the last hour of trading today but on a broader scale. In the last 50 minutes of trading, the tick went from about MINUS 300 to PLUS 950 while the DOW went DOWN from about 7880 to 7825. This is highly unusual and indicates that money was flowing out of large cap industrial stocks and into other areas of the market. I wasn't watching the Internet stocks during this time, but many of the semiconductor stocks up ticked several times during this period. Even LSI, which is part of the S&P 500 index, up ticked from a bid of 12 1/2 to 12 3/4 in the last half hour.

The S&P 500 finished down 2.7% and the DJIA finished down 3%. When you combine this with the positive tick and an advance decline line that wasn't all that bad, it looks like the top tier stocks in the S&P 500 went down while the lower tier stocks went up in the last half hour. The S&P 500 is a market cap weighted index and is affected more by the larger stocks. This could explain why the S&P 500 and DJIA didn't budge while the tick was rallying.

I think this is positive for the market because it might mean that the beaten up smaller and mid caps will rally at the expense of the large caps. This only makes sense given that many of these stocks are down 50% to 80% this year while the large caps have powered ahead. The small and mid cap stocks have been in a bear market for a long time and I think it's their time to rally.

Comments are always appreciated.

Thanks,

Dan