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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7062)10/1/1998 7:39:00 AM
From: Mason Barge  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10921
 
<<I think we are running out of time in the far east and that may cause a domino effect in the whole world, in that case we might end up in a liquidity trap and reductions in interest rates will have no impact >>

Nicely put, Zeev. I have the exact same worry, especially considering that Japan, which has the financial clout to treat the situation, seems paralyzed by its trauma. I was rather surprised not to see a bigger rate cut from the Fed, and the failure to cut the discount rate at all was inexplicable. They really need to chop the discount rate substantially to get some money out of U.S. fixed-rate securities. We just don't need it -- what we need is to prevent a continuing debacle in Asia.

The only bright spot is the $70 BB budget surplus here in the U.S. This country might simply have to dump dollars, but this will be hard to swallow, and perhaps impossible politically, while the Japanese are sitting on their hands, with their huge currency reserves locked away unused.

Japan seems unable to do anything with its trillion-dollar savings other than sit on it. In the meantime, the enormous economic infrastructure they have built in Asia crumbles. I just don't understand how they can sit and watch their investment be dismantled. They are now closing factories and businesses outside Japan wholesale while wringing their hands at home. They can't release it for consumer spending, as they should have done a couple of years ago, and now they don't seem willing to risk part of it to prevent dismantling of the Asian economy.