To: Hal Campbell who wrote (3546 ) 10/1/1998 12:11:00 PM From: Ed Perry Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17679
I am as disappointed as anyone is, but ….. Upon seeing the NET post of the decision, I had that sinking feeling like from dashed hopes. However, expecting a big sell-off , I saw down 1/8 on insignificant volume and then a regain of 1/16 by day's end The next day, today, and now the news is fully disseminated to all interested parties, the stock opens marginally lower again on insignificant volume. By mid day this early decline is also recovered. Ignoring everything else, and looking at the technical condition of this stock, I see some kind of decent base building during the entire month of September. With two tiny rallies occurring topping out about the 15th and the 28th, volume rose with the tiny rallies and diminished with the tiny declines (see the 3 month chart). These small price movements are different than what had occurred through August end. Here, declines accomplished lower lows and also ended in volume increases at the low point with diminished volume on the rallies (see the 3 month and one year chart). I'm not trying to make an especially big point here. However, if your focus is longer termed, then you should consider the fundamentals of the potential or anticipated Ampex product line and service. If it is shorter termed, then your focus should be on the immediate and upcoming price action in relationship to the recent past (say 52 weeks trading). If Ampex takes this sombre news announcement in stride, with apparent little induced sell-off, then I have to conclude that the technical condition of this stock is quite strong, or the stock has been accumulated in the "right" hands. That is, whoever is holding this stock is valuing brighter prospects for a longer termed more fundamental picture. The next big event, and opportunity for sell-off, is the tax loss selling season of October through mid December. Again, the same evaluation of observations would apply. Sometimes what a stock does not do is as telling as what one wishes it would do. The answer lies in a complex picture of relative price levels , nature of market participants, character of expectations prevailing and shifting time frames. Ed Perry