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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (24762)	9/30/1998 11:37:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

GM, When evaluating stock charts and moving averages all the information is historical in nature. The "benefit" of studying the trend of the short term and long term moving averages is that once a short term indicator crosses over the long term indicator the market/stock tends to trend in the direction of the short term movement. Trend line or trend curve changes can be leading indicators of likely movements and can give some fairly accurate predictability of short term movement away from the mean line. Somehow,<g> I suspect that you have used graphs and charts showing hysteresis and response curves in your past engineering background to give you some predictability of performance relative to a mean performance expectation, no??<VBG> I use graphs and charts very frequently to analyze performance and to predict likely future responses to changes at my job they are usually extremely accurate as long as the information is accurate and well characterized. The only "difference" as I see it is that the markets have unforseen variables that confound or corrupt the response due to the psychologically motivated "human" element. For those who are interested in using historical data to see trends and changes in trends(Technical analysis) decisionpoint.com taguru.com taguru.com Just my opinion, BB

To: Gottfried who wrote (24762)	10/1/1998 8:00:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

GM, Any comment on TA after yesterday and today? Are we seeing full development of the right shoulder of the head and shoulder formation of the DJIA? If so, then possibly another 10 - 15% downward to go before Feb '98??? Why Feb, because Jan-Feb will be end of year earnings announcements for '98 fiscal year for most DOW stocks which will show significant losses/weakness. If there is a major sell off below 7400 then we might reach a market bottom by early/mid Nov, IMO. taguru.com FWIW, taguru.com BB