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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dauntless who wrote (5782)	10/1/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: Tokyo VD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7041

Dauntless, I'll explain my thought process. If we assume Lilly can get worldwide approval for ICOS' PDE-5 in three years (a big assumption given the ICOS is only in Phase II), Morgan Stanley's worldwide market estimates for Viagra sales in 2001 are $3 billion (which I believe are too high given Viagra's current domestic Rx run-rate of $480 million). Therefore, I assumed that at best Lilly would capture 10% of the market (which is doubtful given that anecdotal reports suggest the onset of action is up to 4 hours), then worldwide sales would total $300 million. If Lilly splits sales 50/50 with ICOS, then the total sales to them is $150 million. Thus, my statement that Lilly values the ED med at $150 million. The estimated market statement was patients not dollars. Sorry for the confusion. I found it interesting that Lilly and ICOS chose to state that the worldwide total was up to 30 million men given that a Wall Street analyst following Zonagen suggested that he "conservatively" estimated the total market at 40 to 50 million men worldwide. Wouldn't Lilly and ICOS have benefitted if they used these wildly bullish figures for the total patient population which runs anywhere from 33% to 66% higher than its estimate? Thanks for your patience. Tokyo