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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6852)	10/1/1998 12:50:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Zeev, I would tend to agree with all aspects of that analysis. Only problem is I have to trade bonds for a living and I have to consider the possibilities of extreme behaviour. After all we see what happens to people who don't consider extreme moves <G> Henry

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6852)	10/1/1998 1:46:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Zeev, I tend to agree but how do you see the timing? I have been troubled by the issue of neutral to positive news. I would argue that sustained rising equity prices need to be supported by an environment of neutral to positive news. At a minimum, we need the bad news behind us so we can build a theory for improving business conditions. I'm baffled as to when that may occur, but have formulated the following theory anyways <g>. As you say, "'mind sets' change slowly." Peoples' views on earnings are still coming down to reflect reality. Corporate forecasts are still coming in line with reality. A base from which to build has not yet been found. Our news folks are still digging for the blood in Asia, and lead us to believe that the worst part of Asia is still cloaked and coming. It seems to me a series of rate cuts will be needed to initiate positive news flow. That would be coupled with restructuring efforts putting a floor under earnings. Therefore, I see this whipsaw trading range lasting into the Spring. I would be interested in your comments. Regards, Lee