To: JRI who wrote (145 ) 10/2/1998 1:49:00 PM From: jbn3 Respond to of 335
Top Fund Manager *Janus Twenty's Schoelzel* likes DELL (thanks to PAL)Message 5896040 Here is an article from 10/2/98 Investors Business Daily. Janus Twenty's Schoelzel Adds To Leaders On Dip Date: 10/2/98 Author: Peter McKenna There is an old saying that quality rises to the top. In the case of Janus Twenty Fund , quality not only rises to the top, it stays there. In recent weeks, while the returns of many mutual funds have plunged into negative territory, Janus Twenty's returns have dipped and then rebounded. The fund's year-to-date return got as high as 51% in July. The summer correction slashed the gain to a low of 25%. But the fund, which has remained fully invested, has rallied and was up 34% going into Thursday. Janus Twenty carries an A+ grade from IBD for its three-year total return of 123%. During that time it outperformed 99% of all other mutual funds. The portfolio of the $9.4 billion fund is concentrated in just 20 to 30 stocks and has been managed for more than a year by 39-year-old Scott Schoelzel. IBD interviewed Schoelzel recently to find out why the fund has held up so well. IBD: Let's start with the $64 question: Why did Janus Twenty hold up while the market was going through a severe corrective phase? Schoelzel: It's because our high P- E stocks like Microsoft, Dell and America Online did not suffer as much as we thought they would. They are a big part of our portfolio. IBD: Were you surprised by the strength of these stocks? Schoelzel: Yes . . . it was a big surprise, but an even bigger surprise was how much the financial stocks got clipped. Some of the big banks were essentially cut in half; that was a huge surprise for me. IBD: When the market started to drop precipitously, did you consider trimming your high P-E holdings? Schoelzel: No. We were on the phone with people at companies like Dell almost continuously, asking them about every little detail of their business. They gave us good, objective insights that helped us determine that it would not be a good idea to reduce our holdings in the stock. Actually, we ended up adding to most of our holdings. IBD: What type of information did you get from Dell? Schoelzel: This is a remarkable company. They don't have a big exposure in Asia; only about 7% of their business originates in that region, but about 80% of their cost of doing business is based on the cheap labor costs in Asia. They have benefited from some dramatic cuts in the price of components. IBD: But Dell's sales have slowed recently, along with many other companies'. Schoelzel: Yes, their sales rate has slowed, but it is still up 36% year over year. And Dell recently said that sales are beginning to accelerate again. The company is still growing. IBD: But if we are entering an economic slowdown in the U.S. and around the world, as some economists say, won't all companies suffer a slowdown, including Dell? Schoelzel: I think companies in the U.S. and overseas will realize that technology is so vital to their ability to compete that they will cut back on other expenses, but not on technology. This will favor companies like Dell. The governments of foreign countries realize that they can't afford to fall behind when it comes to computers and communications systems. Even individual consumers have been bitten by the technology bug; they won't spend $200 on a new suit, but they will buy a new cellular phone. IBD: What companies other than Dell and Microsoft will benefit from the conditions you just described? Schoelzel: I took advantage of the downturn to open a position in Nokia, the cellular phone maker. I bought more than 4 million shares at prices ranging from 68 to 74; the stock has been as high as 100 and is now back to about 83. IBD: Did you retreat to cash during the downturn? Schoelzel: No, we bought more Dell, Microsoft, America Online, Pfizer, Worldcom , Home Depot, Warner Lambert, Cisco and others. IBD: Do you think high P-E stocks' resilience during the downturn destroys the theory that these stocks should be hit the hardest in a market decline? Schoelzel: I'm not willing to make a bold statement that high P-E stocks are now impervious to downturns. Stocks with high multiples have done well for a long time for one simple reason: Their fundamentals haven't changed. If a high P-E company begins to slip as a business, its stock will still suffer. IBD: Do you see any signs that some of the market favorites are starting to slip? Schoelzel: Not yet. Some of these companies have shown the ability to grow in the most difficult operating environments. IBD: Give us an example of one of these companies. Schoelzel: Microsoft is one. Since 1988, it's gone through almost every conceivable operating environment. In that 10 years, Congress has been dominated by the Democrats, and then the Republicans. We've had high inflation, and low inflation. We've had a host of dramatic political events, and Microsoft continues to operate efficiently. If you pull out press accounts from 10 years ago, you could find dozens of articles that said Microsoft was too expensive. Yet it keeps growing. IBD: So you do not believe, as some analysts say, that the market leadership will switch from large-cap, high P-E stocks to small-cap stocks? Schoelzel: That type of change will be short-term in nature. The large companies with the highest growth rates should continue to lead us forward. (C) Copyright 1998 Investors Business Daily, Inc?