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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (68604)	10/1/1998 6:25:00 PM
From: Jim Patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

RE: Michael Dell & crew have UPPED their projection of (annual) industry PC growth over the next 3 years- FROM 15% TO 17%....MD & crew continue to expect Dell to grow at A MULTIPLE of the market during the next 3 years... This may be so. Their forcast for 1998 PC growth has come down every quarter this year. It would not surprise me to see the same trend emerge in their reciently upped 3 year forcast. RE: In the spring you asked, "Is Dell immune?"....You listed a bunch of problems affecting OTHER PC MAKERS....Yes, Jim...Dell was/is immune (from the problems of other PC makers)...Dell IS THE PROBLEM OF OTHER PC MAKERS (one of them, at least)..Look at the results (of Dell) since your comments last spring.... This is very true. The stock did not break, and the Bulls were rewarded, and the Bear, (ME) took it on the chin. I am not going to debate the fundamentals you cite in the rest of your post because I can't win that argument. DELL's fundamentals are truely great. Here is what I can offer. Today I heard a rummor that MER is putting on a technology spending freeze. Supposedly they are a heavy spender in this area. Is there any truth to the rummor that came through so many people that I could not find the direct source, I dont' know. I do know the company is not going to make as much money as they did last quarter. Will that effect tech spending going forward ? Again I don't know. Do they buy DELL, again I don't know. Is the Bull market over ? This I do in fact know. Yes it is over. Are we in a bear market ? Yes we are in fact in a bear market. Will DELL's stock price suffer in a bear market ? Yes indeed it will. The ultimate answer is, DELL is not immune to anything. You mention free cash flow. Well, Where is all of the cash ? It is not on the balance sheet. That is why the book value does not go up. That is why the company will fall appart once their growth slows. I don't know when that will happen. I thought I knew, but I was just early. I don't like the idea of a bear market, and wiping out trillions of dollars of wealth. But it is something that has to happen every so often. We mortals have to be reminded of this fact from time to time. I will conclude. DELL's stock price will fall in a manner simmilar to CCI or MER or anyother big momo stock, orderly quickly and relentlessly. And all the time, MD will tell you how great his company is doing. Jim