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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank P. Lee who wrote (15869)	10/1/1998 7:24:00 PM
From: mmeggs	Respond to of 152472

Congratulations on your excellent return on your ERICY investment. That says very little about which is a better investment going forward. In fact, it says nothing. If you are satisfied with the money you've made, and have no desire to leverage that to make more, so be it. Obviously, people feel pretty strongly about Q's prospects going forward. Although it was kind of funny to read you saying "you and your friends on this thread..." I guess we're all friends, I'm pretty new to the thread relatively speaking. I can't let your comment about Q's "moment in the sun" having passed, though. If you have read the thread at all, you must have read the debate about 3g, growth in wireless, declining prices, and the rest of exciting things happening. On the contrary, I feel like the sun is beginning to rise for Qualcomm, as the investments they've made in the technology, the ASIC, infrastructure, and handset business all begin to pay off. The revenue growth has been astounding, and as the yields on previous investments begin to hit the bottom line, Q may even best the 128% growth you say you need to catch up to your ERICY investment 5 years ago. (And a question, does the growth you claim in ERICY include the 50% collapse since mid-July?) As for the Beta/Apple analogy, it may be true, but in reverse. As the primary owners of the wireless standard of the future, it is easy to foresee a day when people laugh about the early Ericsson phones with their lousy voice quality, inability to hold a call, and limited services as they talk and e-mail to friends, relatives, and business associates on their new pdQ5000. At least I hope so. Regards, mmeggs

To: Frank P. Lee who wrote (15869)	10/1/1998 10:58:00 PM
From: kech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

My good friend Frank. Let's compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges. The comparison with ERICY was from last Sept. to this Sept. We had all of these discussions last year about 5 year CGR performance and decided the only way to settle the discussion was to look forward. This is the only experiment that makes sense. We asked who was going to do better over the next year, ERICY or QCOM? Last Friday, QCOM won, though if we did it today it might not. In any case, we both know that one can do retrospective analysis and pick endpoints and show some investments do better. That is not the point. The point is to look forward and give reasons for why one will do better than the other and put our money down. To make it simple, you wouldn't bet on the Texas Longhorns this year would you? No, even though their CGR for the last 10 years looks pretty good. This year, even though it would really hurt, you would bet on the Nebraska cornhuskers, right? If you had to bet on one or the other? Well, the same goes for whether you would bet now on QCOM or ERICY going forward? Sorry to hear about your QCOM phone but you really have to distinquish between carrier and phone. A problem in either one can make the other not look so good although clearly your phone did have problems. The problem with early qcom phones have been discussed before here. The coverage in the early roll-out of your system could easily have made the q look not so good. Just saw a plan by Sprint to offer $.10/minute calls to anywhere in the U.S. covered by the Sprint system. That is the same as my long distance rates, and you can call from your car. You could call me on your commute and complain about this post!! All the best, you rabblerouser. I'm going over to the Xilinx thread to tell them their chips suck. Tom :-)