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Technology Stocks : VLSI Technology - Waiting for good news from NASDAQ !!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DanZ who wrote (4498)	10/1/1998 6:53:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 6565

Dan: I certainly think a lot of people are playing the market the way you describe. I also think the big caps are still richly priced and the DOW should go lower. And I think that we are on the verge of a recession (heck I think we are in a recession if you talk to the right people - semiconductor equipment employees for one, Wall Street types soon). We are in a funny situation where the rates are low, unemployment is low but the rest of the world is kaput. And if not done properly we could plop into recession ourselves - my hope is that if we are in (or plop into <g>) a recession it will be one of those mild ones. The only good thing is that my small caps will then (finally) come through and so will the techs on any subsequent sign of strengthening economies. I also thought that the smaller caps would be more US Economy dependent and not global economy dependent and so have a chance but the lack of interest and liquidity has hurt them even though most of them have vastly better prospects and vastly lower risk premiums - most people are playing the volatility game as you indicated. I have been trying to count the s/t extreme-panic periods in the market - the last couple of days count as 1, Aug. 31 was another and I would have been able to count more but everyone has panicked and I can't get through to any web sites with graphs! Just guessing but we need at least one more panic situation in the general market maybe - bad news does come in 3's <g>. I just wish everyone would just take a deep breath, count to 10 and then go on vacation! I'll bet the ulcer medications sales go up over the last few months. It is truly amazing the values in the market these days... Everyone's jumping off the ship. The techs got plastered the first and now everyone else is following suit. Can't decide whether the market has one more down-leg to go (but small caps are ridiculously cheap - they can put that on my tombstone). Suspect we should be 7,200 or a bit less. But we may overshoot on the downside - as we usually do <g>. Shane.