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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (3600)	10/1/1998 9:42:00 PM
From: set	Respond to of 5676

re: flags++ these are just some rambling notes. not specifically aimed at you tippet. I'm just throwing them out so I can turn around tomorrow and read them as if someone else had written them, to see if there's any sense in them. It's been noted, though I forget by whom, that these flags are suspect because of their large size and the lack of listless trading which is supposed to characterize them until they break. I'm watching the OEX specifically and such criticisms appear fair to me. fortunately, the target on the OEX for the flag is around 440, which is exactly the bottom of the channel which was defined in July and August. Consequently I don't care if these are flags or whatever. I'll just call them measuring moves which ran the exact width of the channel. It's not at all obvious to me that the price objective will be met immediately. Actually the market appeared strong to me today and I think we're in for 2 or 3 days of non-movement before finishing up, maybe by the end of next week. That's just a guess, but I saw a lot of buying and a suspicious lack of intraday volatility. On the OEX, that would serve up a couple of 40 moves interupted by a short consolidation, which feels right to me. I think it's also supported by individual stock charts. For example: I'll bet (though not with real money) that YHOO will bounce off 100 tomorrow like a red ball. I noticed that there is no open interest in AAPL nov 30 puts. none. Even interest in the 35s is pathetic. You can be sure that, unless an alien invasion intervenes, McBuyers will be back in force tomorrow. Whew - that was close :) But by next week they'll be crushed like bubblewrap. WCOM - extra neat. Notice the exact duplication of Jul/Aug Aug/Sep. The market is the greatest artist I have ever seen. It's just amazing. However these are some pretty expensive works. one day (dream sequence) I will be soooo rich, that I'll use the market just to make pretty pictures. LU is making a spectacular Taj Mahal. I have a rule I follow which says the the spaces between opposing moves on a chart should be sufficiently wide or else they are not allowed to happen. For example in YHOO a straight decline right now would make for too narrow a space. There probably a fib number in there somewhere but I just eyeball it. Notice it closed exactly on the very steep trendline from the Aug low. I bet it reverses tomorrow and makes a new high before this is all over. The top of its channel is above 140 (something closer to 144). hope nobody actually bothered to read all this crap. Shahar