To: gbh who wrote (54989 ) 10/2/1998 12:03:00 AM From: gbh Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 61433
Top Stories: All Quiet on the Lucent Front By Kevin Petrie Staff Reporter 10/1/98 4:06 PM ET Well, maybe tomorrow. Today, months of hype turned to a non-event. Wall Street players and reporters as well fat glossy business magazines have been speculating fervently about a big deal for Lucent (LU:NYSE), a builder of telephone networks. Lucent had snapped up several small targets in the field of computer networking, but that was perceived as chicken feed. Today, Lucent turns two years old as an autonomous entity, which allows it to acquire big companies in a more financially palatable fashion. Rather than using purchase accounting and swallowing a "goodwill" charge to future earnings, Lucent can enter a "pooling of interest" transaction. In a pooling, two companies simply combine their balance sheets, sans charges. Reporters and pundits spotted the train a long way off. TheStreet.com wrote in August about the magical date and what it means to Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) if Lucent buys Ascend (ASND:Nasdaq). On Sept. 13, The New York Times spoke of Lucent swallowing "bigger fish," and Business Week declared "hunting season" on Sept. 21. The only sound of caution came from San Jose Mercury News last week. But don't hold your breath. Lucent will make no announcements today, according to a company spokesman. Talk about a letdown. "We have to remember one thing," says analyst Greg Geiling with J.P. Morgan. ""People have been talking about this for 12 months, but until Oct. 1, they were also prohibited from having in-depth conversations with anyone." Lucent declined to talk about possible transactions. Ascend says its business is doing just fine as a standalone. CEO Mory Ejabat is on the East Coast this week, which a spokesman says has fueled more chatter about just how close he was to Lucent's headquarters. For the record, Ascend and Lucent are not in talks. But investors have larger worries these days, nursed by profit warnings from Lucent rivals Alcatel (ALA:NYSE) and Northern Telecom (NT:NYSE): the health of the underlying business. Geiling says the sector still will grow revenue 14% to 16% worldwide. While North American telephone carriers might spend less on voice and Internet products next year, the big guys can still flex their muscles. He estimates that Lucent and even Nortel can grow in the "double digits" next year. Today, the sellers aren't listening. All telephone networking stocks declined today. The Deal might still happen. Lucent might acquire two assets: more Internet products or stronger international distribution channels. Ascend, long rumored to be the top target, offers plenty of the first and some of the second. But then again...