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To: Joe NYC who wrote (15882)	10/1/1998 11:09:00 PM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 152472

Tom, I forgot go down to the one about his Tomato Plants

To: Joe NYC who wrote (15882)	10/2/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: dougjn	Respond to of 152472

Much of Wall St. has had touching belief that Greenspan can save us from any serious problems in either the stock market or the real economy, if he just decides he wants to. You know, if he feels he has stepped back and let us be punished for our irrational exuberance enough. It is not at all clear that lower interest rates in the U.S will cure all that ailes those swept up in contagion. Credit is contracting not because interest rates are too high for people to borrow. It is contracting because its no longer so clear there are enough customers who can afford a lot of people's products. Because of overcapacity. It's the realization that slowly declining interest rates in the U.S. won't necessarily keep flat or down profits, or recession, from our shores, that is now seeping into the Street's consciousness. It seems to me. In a global economy its not so clear that overcapacity one place is not overcapacity everyplace. It just takes a while to spread as much as its going to to the center. Grain farmers and timber sellers in North America have been hurting for some time, as have the semi equip manufacturers we all have paid a lot more attention to. That is old news for sure. (But not getting any better either.) Steel producers have been feeling horrific pain from overseas overcapacity now tumbling onto our shores. But who cares about steel producers? (Unless some of them buy cell phones.) Now we hear that Peoplesoft's numbers have been taken down a bit "due to the challenging environment" and some market penetration issues. Hmmmm. Doug