Libya Seeks Leadership Role in Africa
Having dramatically turned his back on the Arab world, abolishing
the Arab Unity Committee and threatening to withdraw from the
Arab League for its failure to support Libya on the Lockerbie
bombing trial issue, Libyan leader Moammar Khaddafi has turned
his full attention to Africa. His agenda appears to be twofold,
to pay for and expand the diplomatic support he is receiving from
African countries, and to act in every way counter to what little
U.S. policy is detectable in the region.
The Organization of African Unity voted in June to ignore UN
sanctions on air travel to Libya, when such travel was required
for diplomatic or humanitarian reasons. Since then, 11 African
leaders have violated the sanctions, for which Khaddafi awarded
each of them medals of honor on September 30. Four of the
leaders were present in the Libyan coastal town of Sirte for the
awards ceremony, including Idriss Deby of Chad, Isaias Afwerki of
Eritrea, Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, and Ibrahim Bare Mainassara
of Niger. Other award recipients included Omar al-Bashir of
Sudan, Laurent Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),
Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, and the leaders of Burkina Faso, the
Central African Republic, Gambia, and Mali.
Khaddafi's carefully targeted contributions to his African
neighbors go well beyond medals. This week the government of
Chad confirmed that it was providing 1,000 troops to support
Kabila in the DRC, though other sources counted nearly 2,000
troops sent. Chadian assistance to Kabila has been facilitated
by Libya, whose transport aircraft have shuttled the troops from
N'Djamena airport to the DRC for several days. The Associated
Press cited unconfirmed reports that Libya is financing the
Chadian troop deployment, and may even have replaced France as
the primary financier of the Deby government.
As STRATFOR reported in the September 23 Global Intelligence
Update, the U.S. tacitly backs Ugandan and Rwandan efforts
against Kabila, in part due to the merging of the DRC crisis with
the conflict in Sudan. Against Sudan, the U.S. supports Ugandan-
backed Sudanese rebels in the south, and Eritrean-backed Sudanese
rebels in the east. Sudan has reportedly deployed from between
2,000 and 10,000 troops to support Kabila, partially in an effort
to outflank the Ugandans. The twisted web of conflict that has
formed from Luanda to Asmara offers Libya a unique opportunity to
simultaneously emerge as the diplomatic hero of the continent,
while striking at U.S. policy in several places simultaneously.
Besides joining Sudan, among others, in bolstering the Kabila
regime, Libya has launched efforts to settle not only the Congo
crisis, but also the conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and
Somalia. President Museveni's unexpected "working visit" to
Libya on September 29 sparked rumors that Khaddafi was attempting
to negotiate a settlement of the conflict. No results have yet
come of the visit, but further Libyan-Ugandan contacts are likely
in the near future.
This is particularly the case, as the conflict in the DRC was
undoubtedly not the only crisis on the agenda of Khaddafi's talks
with Museveni. Khaddafi is devoting substantial effort to
forging a settlement in Sudan. Sudan has accused Uganda of
actively supporting a recent Sudanese rebel offensive with troops
and armored vehicles, and on September 28, Khartoum ordered a
full-scale mobilization. Uganda denied the Sudanese claim and
warned that its army stood ready to defend against Sudanese
aggression. As in the DRC, Khaddafi appears to be coming in
against Uganda (and the U.S.). On September 28, the first
meeting of the Infrastructure Committee for Libyan-Sudanese
Integration signed a new accord on cooperation in the fields of
land and air transport, roads, energy and mines, power linkage,
industry, telecommunications, postal services, housing, and other
services.
On Sudan's other front, Khaddafi has attempted to forge a
settlement between Khartoum and Asmara, however Al-Bashir and
Isaias reportedly traded insults in Khaddafi's office while they
were both visiting Tripoli. Interestingly, it was apparently
Sudan that was unwilling to negotiate, as the Eritrean president
was described by the Ethiopian press as "eager to oblige." In a
sign that Libya has made some progress, if not toward peace than
at least toward Eritrea's realignment, President Isaias last week
blasted the United States for complicating the border dispute
between Eritrea and Ethiopia from the beginning. The U.S. has
attempted to suppress the conflict in order to maintain pressure
on Sudan. In doing so it has apparently thrown too much support
to Ethiopia for Eritrea's liking, driving Asmara back toward a
Libyan mediation offer.
On September 15-27, a delegation of the Libyan Revolutionary
Committee reportedly met in Asmara with the secretary general and
other representatives of Eritrea's ruling party. The two sides
reportedly resolved to implement agreements already reached
between the two countries, and to pursue further contacts. They
reportedly discussed issues ranging from Somalia and Sudan to the
conflicts in the DRC and on the Eritrean border.
Libyan efforts in Eritrea parallel those of Egypt, though with a
slightly different spin. Egypt, too, has offered to mediate the
dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea, but Egypt is not also
attempting to relieve pressure on Sudan. In fact, Egypt hosts
the political representation of the Sudanese rebels. In a
statement to the Egyptian newspaper "Al-Ahram" on September 29,
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak described Khartoum as devious,
and attacked the Sudanese regime for hosting terrorists.
However, in the same statement, Mubarak stressed his support for
Libya, and his understanding of Khaddafi's recent anger with the
Arab community over sanctions. Mubarak praised Khaddafi for
severing all links with terrorism and disposing of Libya's
chemical weapons. Libya and Egypt are already cooperating in
efforts to stabilize Somalia, and if they can resolve their
differences over Sudan, they could play a role in settling the
Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict.
The disagreement over Sudan, however, is key. Just as the U.S.
is attempting to weave a connected, yet confused and often
contradictory policy that covers all of Africa's merging
conflicts, so Libya's efforts to play a competing role in the
region are meeting some of the same difficulties. Libya may get
its way in Congo, but that is lower on the U.S. priority list
than Sudan. Libya can aid Sudan and try to draw of Eritrean
assistance to the rebels, but this may run afoul of Egypt. Libya
may have found a place in Africa where it can roam free and
attempt to develop a leadership role, but in all, Libya will have
about as much luck dealing with this mess as has the United
States.
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