To: DMaA who wrote (8741 ) 10/2/1998 11:42:00 AM From: Steve Fancy Respond to of 22640
Brazil's Cardoso Is Fincl Markets' Candidate Of Choice By STEPHEN WISNEFSKI Dow Jones Newswires SAO PAULO -- Brazilians should elect President Fernando Henrique Cardoso to a second term in office in two days and global financial markets will breath a collective sigh of relief. But why is a former leftist-leaning sociology professor now the darling of Brazil's business community and considered the only person capable of pulling the country back from the brink of economic chaos? The quick answer: He's done it before. Cardoso, who holds a 2-1 lead over leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is recognized as the father of the economic stabilization program, known as the Real Plan. The ambitious plan cut inflation from over 2,400% in 1994 to under 1% in 1998 and gave the country unprecedented stability that brought foreign investors back to Brazil. The president introduced the plan in 1994 when he served as finance minister and has been unwavering in his commitment to protect the currency at all costs and spur economic growth. With Brazil currently mired in a crisis that has swallowed $25 billion in foreign reserves since the end of July and sapped investor confidence, analysts said that now more than ever the country needs the assurance of stability that Cardoso provides. "Our confidence in Cardoso is based on a proven track record," said Carlos Kawall, chief economist at Citibank in Sao Paulo. "Cardoso has a clear vision and his policies don't stray off track. They don't take the market by surprise." "It's incredible to see how far we've come," he added. "After so many years of mismanagement, it was key to have an economic team that plays by pre-determined rules." Analysts praised the Cardoso administration's stubborn insistence on not altering the country's long-standing exchange and monetary policies owing to market pressures. "The thing that investors look for is a consensus to follow a certain path," said Jim Barrineau, Latin America equities strategist for Salomon Smith Barney in New York. "Brazil seems to have built that consensus," he added, citing the government's commitment to reform and fiscal austerity. In an effort to restore investor confidence, Cardoso pledged last week to attack Brazil's massive public deficit - 7.3% of gross domestic product - through the implementation of a three-year fiscal adjustment plan. Market watchers agree that strong words such as these from someone like Cardoso are more than just pre-election posturing. "He talked about the Real Plan during the '94 campaign and proved that it was more than just election talk once he took office," said Silvio Camargo, head of foreign institutional equity sales for Sao Paulo's Banco Fator. Aside from his political talents, analysts attribute a large part of Cardoso's success to a competent team of economic advisors that have earned the respect of foreign governments and investors. "I can guarantee you that they have a great deal of credibility with investors in New York," said Barrineau. "They've been able to keep the currency from collapsing where other countries failed recently." Prior to the Cardoso administration, Brazil's top-level government posts weren't always assigned on the basis of qualifications for the job and cabinets rarely held together throughout a four-year term. Cardoso's core group of advisors carries heavyweight professional credentials and remained mostly unchanged in the first term, a trend expected to continue in a second term. Even the president's detractors recognize the value of the team Cardoso has assembled. "I don't think Cardoso's a savior," said Carlos Augusto Levorim, partner in charge of equities at Oryx Asset Management in Sao Paulo. "But he probably has the best economic team ever." While market watchers are convinced that, given the current crop of presidential contenders, Cardoso is the only person qualified to lead Brazil into the millennium, they also agree that he still has a lot to prove. Brazil's public deficit is spiraling out of control owing in large part to a bloated social security system and lack of control over the state governments. Fears of a recession loom following an economic slowdown in 1998 and unemployment is at its highest levels in 10 years. Analysts said that the days following the election will be key for Cardoso to solidify the trust of financial markets. "Cardoso has shown he lacks the will to make tough decisions during times of crisis," Levorim said. "He's done nothing concrete lately. He needs to push through reforms and announce fiscal measures as soon as possible." Cardoso's overarching goal, market watchers said, will be to consolidate an emerging paradigm shift among the general population and the Congress. "With Cardoso, we've see the beginning of a general understanding that economic stability is important, and that it requires sacrifices," said Citibank's Kawall. -By Stephen Wisnefski; (5511) 813-1988; swisnefski@ap.org