To: Steven Bowen who wrote (8436 ) 10/2/1998 3:15:00 PM From: SteveG Respond to of 12468
<..Steve, someone posted that Merril internal documents show them to be leveraged 97 to 1, and that a drop of 10% below the summer lows will put them out of business...> These kinds of rumors were floating yesterday, so Merrill came out and clarified that their total hedgefund exposure was $2.1B, that LT was $1.4B of that. And that they were something like 90% collateralized with cash or Treasuries. But who knows. I didn't know about Block trading. Must've had some hot shot pimply bandits blow up big on margin. I think the whole market has ALWAYS been a "house of cards" - ponzi scheme really, with some rationalized basis that "something" is there underlying. ALL valuations are ultimately subjective, and will wax and wane with collective consciousness. After a long time of greed, fear is beginning to dominate. Will it last? I like what a fund manager recently said - for the US to go into recession with the economic condition we are in would require Rubin, Greenspan, et al to be idiots for a prolonged period. Could happen, but I wouldn't bet on it. In the meantime, I HAVE been looking at potential shorts. JP Morgan is a good Dow proxy, and JPM puts are better values than OEX or SPX. GE came up yesterday because of GE Capital's massive hedgefund exposure (interestingly, a NY Times article today mentioned potential restructuring of GE Cap, which GE denied):search.nytimes.com Another potential short - TRV - I'm hearing from good sources that Smith Barney may have some serious exposure, which double whammies as they progress to wed with CCI. Ultimately, as most here do, I think telecom and bandwidth buildout will continue - ESPECIALLY in times of crisis when communication is most needed... wherever on the valuation spectrum we wind up. It just may take a year or three. =============================== In the meantime, how about some humor?: Three buddies die in a car crash and go to an orientation in heaven. They are each asked, "When you are in your casket and friends and family are mourning you, what would you like to hear them say about you? The first guy says, "I would like to hear them say that I was a great doctor of my time, and a great family man." The second guy says, "I would like to hear that I was a wonderful husband and school teacher who truly made a difference" The last guy replies, "I would like to hear them say...... "LOOK, HE'S MOVING...HE'S STILL ALIVE..!!!!!" ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Some QUOTES I had a linguistics professor who said that it's man's ability to use language that makes him the dominant species on the planet. That may be. But I think there's one other thing that separates us from animals. We aren't afraid of vacuum cleaners. -Jeff Stilson Never raise your hands to your kids. It leaves your groin unprotected. -Red Buttons Did you ever notice when you blow in a dog's face he gets mad at you? But when you take him in a car he sticks his head out the window. -Steve Bluestone Have you ever noticed? Anybody going slower than you is an idiot, and anyone going faster than you is a maniac. -George Carlin The reason most people play golf is to wear clothes they would not be caught dead in otherwise. -Roger Simon I'm desperately trying to figure out why kamikaze pilots wore helmets. -Dave Edison Anytime four New Yorkers get into a cab together without arguing, a bank robbery has just taken place. -Johnny Carson I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three. -Elayne Boosler Ever wonder if illiterate people get the full effect of alphabet soup? -John Mendoza The statistics on sanity are that one out of every four Americans is suffering from some form of mental illness. Think of your three best friends. If they are okay, then it's you. -Rita Mae Brown Now they show you how detergents take out blood stains, a pretty violent image there. I think if you've got a T-shirt with a blood stain all over it, maybe laundry isn't your biggest problem. Maybe you should get rid of the body before you do the wash. -Jerry Seinfeld I always wanted to be somebody, but I should have been more specific. -Lily Tomlin Why does Sea World have a seafood restaurant? I'm halfway through my fish burger and I realize, Oh my God, I could be eating a slow learner. -Lynda Montgomery