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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (33222)	10/2/1998 12:49:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Nadine, You are missing the denominator effect. What happens is that the decline of 40% is now from 7600, not 9300. Since I think fair value is near 4600 on the Dow, that would be another 32% or so from 9300, but nearly 40% from 7600. We portfolio managers get pretty good at this lying with statistics stuff. I always flim-flammed the numbers to help my marketing people. The #s were all honest and true, they simply did not include all the truth. <G> That's why so many hedge fund buyers are happy to see their funds up 100% one year and down only 50% the next. <G> MB

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (33222)	12/19/1998 4:19:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 132070

Nadine; One thing a lot of people are not taking into account is the drop in the dollar as this market went up this last time, that will come home but it could take a bit. Slap a dollar index over the S&P , from Sept 1st and it won't look near as hot. The rate cuts would have been nice had they not killed the dollar, but now they are just a band aid, and one that will have to be re-placed with more rate cuts, who knows maybe some day we can cut rates as low as Japan has, until they become negative and you pay the Government to hold your money. BTW while the pundits have been beating up on Japan, had you bought her or Hong Kong with dollars, OCT 1st..you would at this time be 10% better off dollar wise than had you bought the S&P500 on it's low. -------------------- It's sort of odd what happens when a countries currency starts dropping, at first the stocks may rally real good..or at least look that way to the locals, ( of course Japanese who had to convert to dollars to buy our stock on their low in OCT, don't see the same gains we do, and wish they had stayed home, any way while stocks often do get a spike when the currency falls, in time they follow the money. Jim