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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (29961)	10/2/1998 12:45:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

ATG, Good analysis. Per my earlier note, TOM gave me a clue to look at the VIX. The DOW is up 103 and we are already up over 200 points off todays lows. I am leaning towards your analysis that the reversal downwards could start today. If it does not start today and we close near the todays highs, I think Monday could be the beginning of the downleg. As I am typing the DOW is already up 125, so we have already rebounded 225 points, which is significant but many may just discount it. Seeya

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (29961)	10/2/1998 1:57:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

>> it is quite possible that it'll end by 14:30 today, and the 3 of 3 will begin before the close today.<< You can start that any time you want - but now would be real good. <g>

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (29961)	10/3/1998 1:42:00 PM
From: Front Beach	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Re: Long grinding bear vs. fast steep drop. Hello Arik... it's been a long time since we asked each other this question on your Millenium thread...over a year ago I think. I still don't have any answers, but this is what I am thinking now... The ring of fire is now complete around the globe, and all wealth and liquidity has run to, and is now concentrated and centered (trapped) in the US dollar. Gold has been manipulated steadily downward so as not to provide an alternative refuge, (psychologically anyways) In other words, ... all the eggs are in one basket. Given this scenario, it should be a whole bunch easier to bring this situation down in a controlled manner...step by painful step...slowly and controlled. If we experience a huge drop..there will at this point be complete global chaos.. and obviously we can't have that. Therefore.... my guess (if it's worth even that...) is a slow continual grind down, with net minus 200 to 300 point weeks at times... but no 1000 or 2000 point down days. Conspiracy theory?.... no, just a belief in a controlled modern society. Thoughts? SP

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (29961)	10/5/1998 6:53:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Arik, Thanks for your wave count reply... As it turned out, I believe you were a little closer than me to nailing the precise end to the 5 wave move down that began on 9/29 (after post rate cut spike-up). I believe we actually saw the conclusion to the 5 wave move at 5:45am Friday morning on the globex session, at the low of 978.5. This ended wave 1 of 3 of 1 of A. We began wave 2 of 3 of 1 of A from there, which has proceeded in a 3-3-5 format. We completed a of 2 at the afternoon high on friday (3:20pm). Wave b of 2 completed at today's low at 1:25pm. We picked up wave c of 2 from there (a 5 wave upmove), and completed wave 1 at 2:15pm, wave 2 at 2:50pm, wave 3 at 3:50pm, and are currently in wave 4, which will probably finish up in overnight trading. That means we only have wave 5 up to go, before we begin wave 3 of 3 of 1 of A. Time measurments of waves 1 and 3 require wave 5 to complete in no longer than an 1.5 daytime (regular) trading hours. The wave could be anywhere from 8 to 43 S&P points in size. Overseas market activity tonight should be a key determinant. This targets tomorrow as one of the greatest index short entry timing points of all time, As Mr. Sew says "to be shorted at the high of the day." Got any specific numbers in mind? I kinda like the 1005-1008 area SPX. Regards, David P.S. Are we in sync with this wave count?