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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6874)	10/2/1998 2:10:00 PM
From: DMaA	Respond to of 9980

This seems pretty significant. Standard and Poors just released a report predicting Brazil will go into a severe recession next year. Will this short circuit already short fuses? Message 5897695

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6874)	10/2/1998 3:46:00 PM
From: Derrick P.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Ramsey, What is this funding for afterall? To pay back previous loans that are about to default, kind of like a Ponzi scheme with new money paying off old. Well, is the Ponzi scheme about to explode? Who is going to be left holding the bag - the banks who loaned to Russia, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, etc etc. If IMF is not funded, LTCM may pale in comparison. Yes that is exactly the point. This seems to me to also be the purpose of the IMF, not to help the developing countries, but to make sure the banks get paid. Now of course the one left holding the bag will be the usual patsy, the tax paying public. I have to hand it to Newt, at least he is making the big guys sweat a little bit. There goes the budget surplus. For about 8 years I've been telling people, 'You think Japan is a competitive manufacturer, just look across the water there to the mainland. Japan only has around 80 million people, China has 1.2 billion +. Is there any reason why China can not duplicate the Japanese 'miracle'?' When I went to graduate school to get a masters in mechanical eng. a good 65-75% of the students in the classes were Asian, mostly Korean and Chinese. They were usually the top of the class and most were getting PHD's. I have been told that good pay for an engineer back in China is under $200 a month. I have been living with this in the back of my mind for the last 10 years. I would have thought that there would be more direct competition with the US but so far they have only dominated the low tech end of the spectrum. I mean go into any toy or novelty store and it is almost all made in China. Of course most of you remember when Japan was in that postion, most of what they produced was junk. So depending on how they manage it, China's day in the sun may not be far off. Getting back to the point, I believe that much of this contagion problem stems from Chinese competition with other developing countries. It amazes me that the politicians still don't get it: biz.yahoo.com There is no way that (the IMF) throwing money at this problem will do any good other than to get the banks hands unstuck from the cookie jar. It scares the sh*t out of me that these guys are dancing around like this but haven't even begun to address the real problems for the developing countries. Derrick