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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (33230)	10/2/1998 1:05:00 PM
From: HB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike, the fund is the one bond choice I have in TIAA/CREF. I'm not all that happy with 8.88%; my ideal choice would have been medium term treasuries but pretax is nice, and I'm not all that unhappy either, since it beats having socked it into their equity funds this year. I'm taking some, but not all, out of the bond fund today. I also cleared out all of a tiny portion of the account which was in the tiaa/cref real estate fund; it has beat money markets, but not by much, and I don't see enough upside to warrant the risk even with interest rates dropping, because if they're going to drop a lot, the reasons won't be good news for real estate. BWDIK. >"the hedge funds will then be long Treasuries and short the >brain dead mortgages" Are you saying the brain dead mortgages are going to go up when the $ falls? <g?> HB

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (33230)	10/2/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike: I agree about bonds being waaay out of line. The question is what is the easiest way to play it. It seems as if these themes take much longer to unfold than I would ever have thought. Is it better to buy long term calls on higher rates or is there a way to play bonds with options. Appreciate your feedback, please post the symbols if you would since it will make it easier for me to look them up. thanks

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (33230)	10/3/1998 12:59:00 AM
From: Seaworthy Lyric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Michael, A great thread...I will stop my compliments at that....we need you humble and astute...The inflation of the Ego was after all one of the major factors contributing to the LTCM fiasco. A couple questions: 1. It seems to me that the recent rise in the bonds is not so much by design or choice but rather by default. The huge amounts of investment capital that are flooding the markets have to be parked someplace. It does not seem to be going to Asia; and less and less of it is willing to support the stock market bubble. We might therefore have a new bubble in the making and this one might not burst until an alternative emerges....euro ?, china ?, commodities ? What are your thoughts on this... and what triggers would you be monitoring for an interest rate reversal. 2. I looked at NEM when you mentioned it a month ago and bought some. It has been quite a ride thx. Anyway, to make a short story long...all of this got me thinking about the commodities market, how it has been depressed for so long, and how that factor is directly responsible for the lack of inflation in the west and also contributes to the emerging market disaster. With capitulation of free markets and the raising of controls all over the world is it not possible, that in the case of Russia, for example, we are only a few steps away from the determination of commodity prices from the supply and not the demand side....Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks again... Jerry