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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: vegetarian who wrote (14309)	10/2/1998 4:21:00 PM
From: McNabb Brothers	Respond to of 18691

M carter, That is how I would take the statement that AG spoke! Hank

To: vegetarian who wrote (14309)	10/2/1998 5:07:00 PM
From: Gordon A. Langston	Respond to of 18691

Which is the greater danger in the world? Rogue nations or terrorists with biological or nuclear weapons (or even just the threat of same) or hedge funds run by rocket scientists for the benefit of the rich and powerful, unregulated, (yeah I know it wouldn't work, they'd just go overseas) margined to the heavens, and toxic enough that the possible failure of just one gets the attention of the two most powerful financial heads in the world. BTW all I could think was welfare was alive and well.

To: vegetarian who wrote (14309)	10/3/1998 12:34:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 18691

>> Assuming that the markets are a future discounting mechanism, wouldn't the best economy be occuring in proximity to the top of the market? << My point was not to imply that Greenspan's comments were right or wrong per se. My point was to illustrate one of the basic tenets of financial markets, which is to say that things always look rosiest at the top. Greenspan's comment about our economy doesn't have to be incorrect for this to be the case. Alan Greenspan is arguably one of the most powerful and revered financial figures in the world today. A couple of years ago Greenspan tried to jawbone the market lower when he said this: "How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly inflated asset values?" --Alan Greenspan - December 5, 1996 The market chose to ignore Greenspan by tacking on another 1,000 points in the Dow faster than at any other time in history. A few months later he said basically the same thing: "Excessive optimism sows the seeds of its own reversal," while conceding... "Even I must admit that our economic prospects in general are quite favorable," --Alan Greenspan - February 26, 1997. Little did he know that less than 16 months later, he himself would begin to engage in the excessive optimism that he warned about. June 10, 1998, with the Dow above 9000, (more than 2,000 points higher than when he tried to talk the market down), Greenspan joined the irrational exuberance and conceded this about the US economy: "The current economic performance, with its combination of strong growth and low inflation, is as impressive as any I have witnessed in my nearly half-century of daily observation of the American economy." --Alan Greenspan - June 10, 1998. This was the headline at thestreet.com "Greenspan's Good Cheer Swells Stock Prices" abcnews.com 41 days later on July 21st, Greenspan gave his Monetary Policy Testimony and Report to the Congress. "So far this year, our economy has continued to enjoy a virtuous cycle." "The Federal Open Market Committee believes that the conditions for continued growth with low inflation are in place here in the United States" last but not least... "As I have stated in previous testimony, the recent economic performance, with its combination of strong growth and low inflation, is as impressive as any I have witnessed in my near half-century of daily observation of the American economy" This testimony was given only four days after the market peaked at 7367 (intraday) on the Dow and 1190 (intraday) on the S&P 500. The Dow was above 9300 right before he testified. The Nasdaq was in record territory at 2020, up for the 10th straight day in a row. Greenspan called the top in the market! I rest my case...