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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (3618)	10/2/1998 6:36:00 PM
From: gregor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5676

>>>>How do you calculate the growth rate of the SP500?<<< Like I said my process is not that scientific, but let me plug in a few numbers. If +20% is very bullish and -20% is very bearish. past 4 qtrs of the S& P grew grew lets say 12%. Interest rates went down from 6 1/2 % to 5% or lost 23%. 12 -23= neg 11% mildly bullish. I am guessing the next 6 months the S&P earnings will grow 3% and Bond rates will decline 35 basis points or a 7 % decline putting us in neutral territory of neg 4. If you take this indicator a step further to get a very bullish reading we would have to have an economy so overheated that interest rates will have to be rising along with at least 10 to 15% gains in the earnings of the s&p or more. Also as long as interest rates are falling we have no hope of sustaining any type of rally. My solution is going to be to trade the inevitable swings and I see this happening for the next 24 months; minimum.