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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (6891)	10/3/1998 12:54:00 PM
From: kormac	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Good morning to all, I have read with interests all the posts here. Clark, thanks for recommending "Deflation" by A. Shilling. I read it this past week. The trouble with this kind of book is that the author wants to make only one point, namely deflation is here, and he marshals all arguments to bolster his point. Thus those who know the numbers well may be put off and discount what he says. I have not read widely enough to be able to point to many specific instances of this, but did notice it on a couple of spots. I am quite certain, however, that his basic argument is true. The reason is that the problems that have now surfaced for public view are not so easily repaired. As has been remarked by many, the economic growth in Asia and other parts of the world has been more rapid than the develpment of various institutions that can keep things in check. It is quite remarkable to believe that Russia could change into a democracy and a free market economy in ten years. The only way Japanese can change their institutions is for most of the leaders (who saw how powerfully the country grew from WWII until 1990) to be buried. The paradigm shift works in business and economics just as well as in physics. Ramsey asked, "Who is left holding the bag". Already about 100 million Indonesians, and comparable numbers in Russia and the other South East Asian countries together. The Japanese public will eventually pay for the mistakes of their bureaucrats. Russians have been paying for generations for thievery of their party officials and now oligarghs. In the US the income distribution has steepened greatly and those in the lower part have been paying for the globalization for a number of years now. Finally we who have gained from the good times here may have to give up some of our profits, if only as taxpayers and not as investors. Many have commented on the misleading pronouncements coming out from the Japanese government and of Rubin and Clinton not letting the country know how really serious this problem is. We know how important confidence in the system is in times like this. Who expects the government officials anywhere to give talks like Fulscher, of Arthur Andersen did. Finally, I suppose in capitalism we have to take the good with the bad. In theory the actions are supposed to be enlightened self-interest, but they are often just self-interest. I was convinced before reading Shilling's book that a good plan for me is to stay in cash, pay down debt, and postpone retirement. Enough ramblings for this Saturday mornings, Seppo