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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (16657)	10/2/1998 11:37:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

Skeeter, you tell me what is probable, right now the chip market is running at an annual rate a shade under $140 billions and is forecast the breach the annual sales rate of $200 billions sometimes in year 2000. With a $400 billion gorilla backing it, is it likely that WFR will have 13% of the wafer market by then or a little later? I say it is quite likely. Since WFR is increasing of epi wafers as a percentage of their total sales, their margins should (hopefully) increase as well. To complete their 300 mm program and some additional improvements in their processes they still need to invest about $100 MM (on top of a similar sum spent in the first half), after that, they have a period of minimal capital investment, with a capacity somewhere in the $275 to $300 MM quarterly in place (not counting the 300 mm capacity which will probably not make any profitable contribution for another two years?), I think they are in a better shape then MU is right now. Having said all that, I am still waiting before jumping in as I have been suggesting to everyone for almost a year. Zeev