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Strategies & Market Trends : Bill Wexler's Profits of DOOM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (3350)	10/3/1998 10:25:00 AM
From: Shtirlitz	Respond to of 4634

<< By the way, when everyone and his brother is talking about global depressions, bank failures, buying gold and heading for the hills...that's exactly the time I'm loading up on stock. >> Bill, Let me partially disagree with you. Reverse psychology is definitely a good and proven strategy. However your timing may not be perfect in this case. Market in general may have already discounted 90% of the world events, that is true. IMO it would be wise to wait out 2 factors that will occur in the nearest future: 1. When the average investor and his brother will receive statements from mutual funds for this quarter they will be in for a surprise. These news on TV roaring about world economy in trouble, and thier statements would cause a big outflow from mutual funds. This outflow has already started in September. The number was about -9 bln. dollars net. Most of the people I know ether have already pulled their money out or thinking about it. 2. Tax selling. This year its going to be a major event. Besides a lot of US companies are losing profits around the world, which is also true. And analysts should revise their optimistic expectations to fit the reality. My plan is to start buying around end of November or December, when these events are behind us. And it applies only if there is no more bad news from around the world. Right now I'm simply making a list of what I would like to buy. Loved you Costco pick. However I'm very cautious about buying into downtrend. This applies to 90% stocks out there. Currently I am holding a few gold and utilities and making short term short plays. Works for me. Good luck.