To: Larry S. who wrote (16592 ) 10/3/1998 11:25:00 AM From: DanZ Respond to of 53068
Smartmoney website, NICEY, ATML Smartmoney website: Cool site, Larry. Thanks. One of the top picks on the smartmoney website is Nice Systems (NICEY). This is an Israeli company that trades as an ADR on the Nasdaq. They design, manufacture, and market digital communications equipment for logging, monitoring, and managing voice, fax, and other data. Their products are primarily targeted towards financial services companies (Citicorp, e.g.) and air traffic controllers. A decent profile of the company is located at smartmoney.com Being an Israeli company, the stock got creamed the past few months because of movement of money out of emerging markets. This brought the stock down about 40% from 49 to 28 between April and August 98. To make matters worse, the company warned on September 25 that third quarter sales will be 10 to 15 percent below the second quarter. The stock tanked another 40% on this news to about 14. The companys' sales have grown over 70% per year for the past one, three, and five years. The reaction to the warning could be a gross overreaction when put into context of the longer term trend in their sales and earnings. Being a growth company, the market didn't like the warning but one could conclude that the bad news for the next few months anyway, is priced into the stock. The 52 week range is 59 1/8 to 13 3/8 and it closed on Friday at 15 3/4. The wide swings are more than likely exacerbated by the low float. Only 13.2 million shares are outstanding and the average daily volume is 588,000. Looking at the chart, the stock has started basing between 14 and 15 since the profit warning. It traded 8.8 million shares the day of the warning and volume has now subsided back to normal levels. This indicates to me, when combined with the basing on the chart, that the strong selling pressure is over. The stock is very risky but I think it could easily trade back to 19. Given downside risk to 13 3/4, NICEY like a good short term trade. Besides, it's the Jewish High Holy days, so we have to buy something Israeli to show our faith! LOL ATML tested its lower daily bollinger band yesterday and bounced very nicely. I added to my position at 7 9/16 but flipped out of it for 1/4 profit and bought DSP. I'm still holding some ATML and think it looks very good for a move back to about 9. Have a nice weekend, all. Dan