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Strategies & Market Trends : Fidelity Select Sector funds -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Angler who wrote (1028)	10/3/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4916

re gold I've done okay playing gold stocks, but I think I will try not to ever play it again, sure like Angler says, if you have the right mine at the right time, terrific...but way too tricky for me. I suppose if a gold stock trades at book, or the value of the gold in the ground, but I tried that and lost. I was lucky to come out with gains this year in one stock which far exceeded my losses in another. I think I know when to quit. As far as making a case for the metal itself: When the bulk of a persons assets lie in future wages I think about the only asset class you can make a case for (besides having some emergency funds in savings) are potential growth stocks. (we all know the best investment is in one's own education, but lets assume that is already taken care of to some degree). But now if I were thirty years older I'd have some of my wealth stuck in gold coins in a safety deposit box, but for now, preserving capital is not a factor, creating it is. Now if gold was going to $1000/oz that would be another thing--but with so many countries hard up for cash and demand for nearly everything going down, I don't see any natural resources going up for awhile. A few of the agricultural commodities might do well from time to time--the weather doesn't always behave--cocoa I think has done well due to drought in west Africa (I think I heard that)...and like we have seen, natural gas had a nice little bounce up...but oil and gold, no thanks. I guess another angle on this is how does one protect his future earnings--what if the greenback sinks for the next thirty years/inflation heats up someday. Maybe real estate is a better hedge against inflation than gold...but doesn't look like we will have to worry about inflation for awhile--and you have to pay property tax on land, so I'm not too hot for that either. (REITs in an IRA you could counter...). Nah, I'll stick to potential growth stock trading in a sheltered account/ira, and the occasional trade in my fido fund, plus a stash of savings, and frequent visits to local library. That is enough investing for anyone without venturing into gold. People are having fun making predictions on the 1998/1929 thread, here is mine: Message 5899145 ...and I will add: Over the next ten years gold will trade between $200 and $400 an ounce. --MM