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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Barbara Barry who wrote (30065)	10/3/1998 11:18:00 AM
From: BubbaFred	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

IMO, it is not high fear, but lack of the big boys (no big buyers). Big boys are in cash. Also we are in transition from the 15-20% annual gain expectations to the normal 6-10% rate of return. Small investors and most of the threads in SI are bullish and are convinced that market has bottomed. Barrons article fails to distinguish between large and small traders. The large traders are more often correct and are not contrary indicator. I am not familiar with the quoted Larry McMillan nor Mike Oyster, nor of their track records. Did any of them called the S&P 20% correction or the NASDAQ bear market in July? Most likely not. There are still too many people out there who keep repeating the "buying opportunity" phrase. That what makes it scarry - still too much optimism when both TA and FA indicators are bearish. Barrons article makes no sense, except the hopes and gropes for resumption of the bull market. What basis for the bull market? - global economic expansion and prosperity? If average P/E is now at 20, with creative accounting, then will be a P/E of 100 be reasonable and justifiable when the global economic expansion and prosperity begins again? If so, then it will be welcome mat for the biggest and baddest Momma of all Kahunas. Otherwise, get ready for the biggest inflation - the late 70's-early 80's type. That will make present value of everything cheap, including all those foreign bailout loans and all other bad loans, which will be paid off with cheaper dollar. That is the reason for the present gold uptrend - the likelihood of currency crisis.

To: Barbara Barry who wrote (30065)	10/3/1998 3:17:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

BB, Fred presents a cogent analysis of the dark side of this market and I can't disagree with him... On the other hand, you present the light side and it is hard to disgree with you since I tend to favor that side. The challenge, indeed, is to be able to incorporate BOTH into your trading plans. While the BK thread is under the options category, I am not at all sure how many options and futures traders we actually have here. Or for that matter, people who dare to sell short if they are NOT options nor futures traders. The point is, as you aptly put it, to be able to determine the trend and hop aboard for a gain. And if that trend ALSO happens to contain a BK, so much the better! Sorry you didn't make a bundle yesterday... with the move up, I thought you would have AT LEAST doubled??? BWDIK? Bill