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To: donald sew who wrote (54651)	10/3/1998 11:37:00 AM
From: Pierre J. LeBel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Donald, I hope that you are right. I was buying OEX October 450 puts yesterday. Have a very nice day. Pierre

To: donald sew who wrote (54651)	10/3/1998 1:32:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Don, great calls so far but on my first look last night I have to say I don't think we are going down hard immediatally unless a spark from Asia triggers us Monday and here is why. Yesterday's action showed some fear for the first time since this down turn started. Notice the high volume on most of the tech stocks in the late morning as all the supports gave way. This was followed by a strong bounce off the lows. My charts are showing multiple hammer bottom and tweezer bottoms today. I think selected stocks could rally short term from here before resuming this fall. I refer to your stair step pattern and almost posted this 2 nights ago but wanted to see yesterday's confirmation first. I think as you pointed out that each step down is larger than the last then we go into the rising wedge, break down and repeat. I believe some stocks have found their bottoms while others a waiting their turn to do the same. There should be a short term rally again to form another rising wedge, shorter in duration than the last one then another step down hard that will take out the last of the survivors such as DELL, YHOO, INTC etc. Many of the smaller issues hit bottom on the first drop, the larger but small issues found bottom on the second drop and most of the mid caps hit bottom this past week. The next drop should be the fiercest and take out the larger tech stocks however a small bear rally will happen IMHO first. Candle patterns indicate that IBM, CSCO and COF could take part in this short rally. The S&P 500 and OEX bounced off a trendline drawn from the low points of July 96 and April 97. Therefore I expect a short term rally before the next leg down though I agree whole heartily in your targets. To paraphrase, I think we are making a series of lower bearish wedges each in short duration than the last and ending in larger drops to make room for the next wedge. I am probably way off base since I put in 16 hours at work yesterday but I think if stocks are selectively picked a short gain on longs will give more powder for flipping to the shorts for the next leg down in 2 weeks or so. Good Luck, Lee

To: donald sew who wrote (54651)	10/3/1998 1:44:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Respond to of 58727

The Market... Don: Excellent analysis... I see a 4 to 5% up move early next week before more downside testing... I also agree that 7400 Dow is getting very brittle... Below that is 7100, then the mid to upper 6000's... But for now, a short term rally... Jim

To: donald sew who wrote (54651)	10/3/1998 4:34:00 PM
From: flickerful	Respond to of 58727

Japanese give more warnings 3 october 98 / financial times By Alexandra Harney in Tokyo Another round of grim profits warnings from Japanese companies yesterday fuelled fears about the impact on corporate balance sheets of the decline in equity values and the deterioration in domestic demand. Among those issuing warnings as companies closed their books for the first half of the financial year were consumer electronics groups Pioneer and Matsushita Electric, Eisai, the pharmaceuticals company, and Komatsu, the construction machinery maker. They followed several days of historic declines for the stock market and a stream of disappointing economic data. Most of yesterday's announcements came after the stock market close and the Nikkei 225 average recovered from its heavy losses earlier in the week to finish up 0.2 per cent at 13,223.69. Pioneer said losses on securities holdings would force it into the red in the first half. In May, the group had forecast profits of ¥1.8bn (£7.9m). Yesterday it said it expected first-half net losses of ¥2.8bn, compared with first-half earnings of ¥1.82bn last year, as a result of the sharp decline in equity values. Losses from equity holdings would be ¥4.6bn. Its consolidated balance sheets would not be affected, it said. Matsushita Electric, which markets the Panasonic and National brands, said losses from investment securities would total ¥46bn. It cut its consolidated earnings estimate for the first half from ¥30bn to ¥6bn. First-half pre-tax profits are expected to be ¥55bn, down 66 per cent on a year before. The losses from securities would not affect first-half net earnings on a parent level, Matsushita said. It lowered its estimate for first-half parent turnover to ¥2,310bn and its parent net income to ¥8bn against ¥36.7bn a year before.

To: donald sew who wrote (54651)	10/3/1998 7:06:00 PM
From: Linda Kaplan	Respond to of 58727

Thanks, Don. Your reports are better and better. They're just wondering! I have Oct calls AND puts and I'm hoping to be able to close both positively, just as long as that top keeps spinning. :-) Linda