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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Barbara Barry who wrote (1935)	10/3/1998 5:55:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3339

How can you compare to '29 and speak almost entirely of options -- doesn't make sense. VIX having a realtively short history, may not be the best indicator for what we are witnessing -- if we are to have a crash (I don't know if we will) at sometime the "oversold" indicators will all fail and there will be panic. Speculate against the fundamentals if you wish, but keep in mind that is what you are doing. I wonder how many times folks over in Germany have "called" a bottom using the same reasoning. I know that as Asia was melting, many were pointing to signs that the selling was way overdone -- where are they now? Either they changed their view in enough time to minimize a loss or are sitting on very large losses indeed. We have had one very large reversal and then bounced very hard off of the broken 200 dma. Transports made a new low yesterday, and we reversed for the day, but A/D was very poor. I've only got one question: Aside from all the options activity -- where was the indication of fear -- real panic selling? I haven't seen stocks as a whole get crushed all at once. Sectors have been intermittently creamed, but the tech favorites are still about where they were when we started. I won't be surprised to see us rally Mon -- more technical bounce and probably from a technical bounce in Europe as well, but after that -- I don't think we are going back up to breach the supports that were broken. The money is gone.