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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (30078)	10/4/1998 4:39:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Tom, i completely agree that we're at the 10/17/29 point on the '29 chart comparison, and that this rally will fizzle by Tuesday. Thanks so much for bringing the full moon synchronization to our attention. I see 1006 as the key # on the Dec. S&P futures. If that gives way, we are very close to beginning the next gigantic leg down. Otherwise, the rally could continue higher to the 1035 area on the Futures before turning down, based on several patterns that have formed with upside projections to that area. A rally past 1042 tomorrow would be harmful to the crash scenario. The scenario I see calls for an end to this rally by this Tuesday, with lower closes to begin no later than Wednesday that will continue for a 5 day period. There should be no buyable bounces until the low on the following Wednesday, October 14th, which would be our correlation to 10/24/29 [Target 780 SPX]. The low on that day was followed by a 13% rally in the next 2 days. The peak of that rally, which will be sometime on Thursday or Expiration Friday (10/16)[Target 880 SPX], should be sold into again, as the real collapse will occur in the following week, and see another short term low on Wednesday, 10/21. That day will correlate with 10/29 [Target 515 SPX]. That low could be followed by a tremendous rally (25-40%) in the subsequent several days [Target 710 SPX]. Once that rally peaks, we would get the final leg of the selloff, which would bottom on the last trading day of October (Friday, 10/30), or the first Wednesday in November (4th)[Target 460 SPX]. The 460 SPX Level will take us right back to the area where we began the parabolic climb in Dec. of '94 (When the Republicans won control of Congress for the first time in nearly 100 years). I expect that low to be followed by a fantastic but slower going rally into February that will offer brave buyers of the November low a 50% return on the general market averages (some will do more). Come February '99, things will turn ugly again, and we should see the Early November '98 low substantially taken out as next year turns into a full fledged, slow and grinding BEAR that grinds out all the irrational exuberance from investors in this country and many others who aren't aware yet of the truth about what businesses are worth at this stage of the current Business cycle, and it this stage in longer term cycles. "Those who ignore history will soon be ignored", and "a fool and his/her money are soon parted." The Punishment of the GREEDY and FOOLISH in the next 30 days will be absolutely unBEARable. Regards, David P.S. I'd be interested in a further explanation of your trend line analysis where you compare "bounces from downtrend lines." Could you give us coordinates and dates, please? TIA P.S.S. For others who'd like to review the '29 chart for comparison, here it is. Our current position would be 2 days directly to the left of his "You are here" arrow: geocities.com