To: Stephen who wrote (2277 ) 10/4/1998 8:12:00 AM From: KW Wingman Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19700
You wrote in 2272: snip ... it looks to me as if the smart money is still leaving the market, which is consistent with comments I've heard elsewhere. Snip .... My comment about this is that there is no smart money. Look at the resume of the people who ran that hedge fund that just went bust, look at who invested in it. That WAS the previous so called smart money. What happened to that so called smart money, down the tubes. They were not as smart as everyone thought they were. You and I and the other players are small potatoes compared to that. Therefore I have very good reason to think I am the smart money. In your previous posts you have raised some good points. There is no doubt we now have serious world wide economic problems. Will we get over it? IMO, without a doubt yes. No G7 country will default on their obligations under social contracts such as social security. This means they will print more money or issue bonds if things get bad. The current so called flight to safety (bonds and money market) is a joke long term. IMO, Bonds are overvalued in relation to stocks but I suspect that will go higher in the short term. The mindless herd is heading south. Japan (inc.)is very selfish and will probably drag it's feet as it has on trade since the beginning of time (fair trade is a one way deal to them). Therefore they will probably try to export their way out of the recession that they have been in for the last eight years. When a nations currency is being devalued or suspected of being devalued in any way, people sell the currency and buy tangible assets to protect their current net worth. The purchase of Silver, Gold, Oil, Real Estate etc have been a method of doing this. It is important to note that you can purchase the stock of good companies to protect yourself also. This last fact has not been fully appreciated in the flight to safety. In my opinion, the US dollar may be eventually devalued in relation to tangible assets such as stock in good companies. Lower interest rates will spur on the US economy, sucking up the imports from Japan, Korea, China and the rest of the world. One of these days the rest of the world may want to send the dollars back home. The following was very good advice (after first buying some CMGI stock): To: Al Cano (2270 ) From: Qualopec Saturday, Oct 3 1998 11:38AM ET Reply # of 2284 Advice: Forget about your position and check it in 3 or 4 years... I think you'll be happy.