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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert read who wrote (30092)	10/3/1998 4:57:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bob, What I would like to see and what is going to happen could be two entirely different matters. You should be an investment advisor... you could advertise as a "Read on the Market." <couldn't pass that up!" Last week at this time, I was ruminating about the weakness I saw while trying to make a bull case. I was concerned that the LNHNL was over 50 and the odd lot sales dropped in half... not a good sign and, as it turned out, prophetic for the markets. This week, things are the same but different in a few key aspects... - While the LNHNL got to 90 the past two days, NAZ faired remarkably better... as a cohort at work chides me... THAT is where his money is! - The number of oddlot short sales INCREASED which shows an increase in the belief we are headed lower by the people who historically are wrong. - The dollar value of the most actives is staying in the $40-60 range which indicates a relative lack of speculation. - The index puts to equity calls traded is up at the 5::1 ratio not bearish by any means and supported by the OI ratio of around 10::1. I start to get really nervous when it heads toward 20 as it did earlier this year. Unfortunately, I did not find traders' commitments in Barron's. I have gone through many of the stocks and indices in my database and most of them are bearish from a short term perspective. So how to put this all together??? My best guess is a further test of the lows by mid-week and then we end UP on the week. But I wouldn't lay my farm on it! Gold is also weak short term which suggests a further move UP in the markets short term. For right now, I am looking into puts at the open... perhaps this list may help: Ideas... - SELL BUD - BUY ASND - sell arc - can coke - Sell disney - Sell XON - FRE sell - Hm Sell ******* - sell IDTI * - intel sell - LORAL sell - MMM Sell *** - NCR yes yes yes - NSCP sell? - NOVL sell - NVLS???? SELL????????? - MO - YES>>>>>>>>>> BUY PUTS!!!!!!!!!!! 45s??? Haven't finished and these are just my notes for whatever it is worth... all the caveats apply here including BWDIK, IMHO etc, etc, etc. Bill PS Aren't you glad you asked???