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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Grant who wrote (1761)	10/4/1998 11:21:00 PM
From: Ron Struthers	Respond to of 1911

Hello Bill and all, this may be of interest THE GOLD BEAR MARKET is OVER!!!! This may seem like a pretty bold statement and a bit premature as most just see this as another bear rally. There is just too many signs and indicators that flash "bottom" 1 - Central banks have stopped selling gold. These guys aren't stupid, with the world markets in turmoil, a US political scandal and the US dollar weakening, they won't be sellers unless they face collapse themselves. We seen what route Russia took, keep the gold and start up the money printing machine. 2 - Lease rates for gold are way down, from the 2% to 3% range to below 1%. This means that nobody wants gold, there is no demand, typical of a bear market bottom. Lease rates are now edging back up again as gold has rallied and this indicates that demand is coming back, off the bottom. <A HREF="http://www.kitco.com/gold.live3.html">Kitco Lease Rates</a> 3 - Gold stocks have had their best rally since the bear market began. This is being led by the large cap or Senior gold producers. This means big money and funds are moving back into gold. The senior gold producers always lead a new bull market. 4 - Excessive short selling by hedge funds has pushed gold lower than warranted and all these shorts have to eventually buy to cover. Estimates put the short position of hedge funds at about 1,000 tons. This strategy has worked great for them in the last two years. Time to change and the time as come. The collapse and rescue of Long Term Capital is a perfect example. The fund is rumored to be short anywhere between 3 million and 10 million ozs. of gold. Most of this funds positions will be unwound and this means buying back the gold. More hedge funds will have to do the same and may even go long. New York Commodities Exchange (Comex) which alone reports a record 250 tons short. The rest of my comments and a couple of charts can be found at RSA Web site sentex.net Ron