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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (33315)	10/5/1998 3:04:00 AM
From: eabDad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

MB- I also use Savitz as a contrary indicator <g>. I understand he's a respected writer, but is too in love with technology to see reality most of the time. I can see we will several discussions on MU. I am not a raging bear, nor a raging bull. The stock is DEAD MONEY for at least 15-18 months, but I do see a good trading range to play: 18-low 40's. However I think they will make it through the next cycle, balance sheet be damned, and an explosive ride starting in 2000 through 2002 is in store. Fundamentals of supply/demand are inplace to support this. For that reason I have 1/3 the position I want to have ultimately, at a mixed cost of 22-23. Over the next year, I'll cover (and have covered) the position above 34. I've seen your low end targets, and while I understand their basis, I'm not sure it will come to pass. MU management is experienced in this business, but I do think they have extended themselves a bit further this time around. They are spending at half the rate they were in 1996, though. While I agree TXN as a partner is a mixed blessing, I do not think TXN will allow them to fail in the near term. Also, the fact that MU is the largest and except for IBM the last DRAM producer as a US company means they can apply a lot of patriotic pressure. There are enough raging bulls in the market for price support in the high teens. Watch for Kurlak to change his mind late next year... You will think my target in early 2002 is absurd, so I won't irritate you with it now, but Jan 2002 leaps come out next May, right? I'll be pricing those very closely 12 months from now. Until then, minimum risk. Z