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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (33319)	10/4/1998 2:58:00 AM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike, I know you saw this in Abelson's column. There has got to be some way to play this overblown crap. My ISP, Earthlink (who are beginning to tick me off with busy signals), is also in the same valuation stratosphere. Hell, they are basically money-losing commodity companies without pricing power and customers with the loyalty of Linda Tripp...... We've long thought that in terms of valuation, online was way off base. Would any sentient businessman pay $24 billion for America Online, whose latest 12-month sales weighed in at $2.6 billion? Would any businessman of sound mind pay nearly $1 billion for MindSpring, with annual revenues of $78 million? But that's what the stock market says they're respectively worth. This month, as it happens, the two companies did a deal. AOL sold an internet provider called Sprynet -- lock, stock and eyeballs (read: facilities, customer support and 180,000 subscribers) -- to MindSpring. We stumbled upon the transaction via Will Lyons, who puts out a newsletter called Short On Value. Will, it should be noted, thinks both stocks are overpriced, but his numbers speak for themselves. MindSpring will pay between $35 million and $45 million for the 180,000 Sprynet subscribers, depending on how many it retains after the sale. That works out to between $194 and $250 a subscriber. By comparison, the stock market is valuing America Online's 14.4 million subscribers at $1,685 each. And it's placing a value of $960 million, or $1,675 each, on MindSpring's 573,000 subscribers (assuming all the 180,000 Sprynet folks move over). Granted, AOL and MindSpring subscribers might rate a premium. But six times the Sprynet subscribers? Come on. John

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (33319)	10/5/1998 3:20:00 AM
From: eabDad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

MB - While I agree TA cannot be viewed as a religion, and to depend on it exclusively is destined to failure, I am a student of TA for one huge reason---- It is the only tool I can find to quantitatively measure one of the largest forces in the market - emotion and psychology. If TA is used in this vain, you can be assisted with points of entry and exit. Fundamentals are the king, but TA can provide an edge. More often, I use it to detach myself from my own emotion of owning a particular stock I love. TA has taught me when to sell. I also follow TA precisely because it has a following. When on August 23rd, the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 broke below their 200 day moving averages, the next few days I bought puts on the market. Why? Because it broke lower, and people knew it. A week ago, the rally carried the averages back to the 200dma. I shorted again on late Monday/early Tuesday precisely because of the belief in the indicators said that it would not go higher. I covered on Thursday when there was evidence of the belief that there was a successful retest of the 8/31 low. Of course, I don't believe it for fundamental reasons, but I can't knock profits. TA is not a religion, is unclear in most cases, but can be useful sometimes. Since this is your thread, I will not bring up TA again, unless asked. Z

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (33319)	10/6/1998 9:08:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

MB: Excellent comments on both topics. With respect to the latter topic (analysts' recommendations), perhaps it is wishful thinking, but finally I think I can see the first indicators that the investing public is getting fed up with the shop worn tricks. The tired business of forecasting great things way out in the future, coupled with the quiet downward revising of estimates in the few weeks preceding numbers release (or "warning") is coming in for considerable criticism. Of course on this thread, it has been a "cause celebre" for many months. Additionally, we are now seeing plenty of criticism (again finally) of analysts rushing to close barn doors after the cows have escaped and wandered on to the freeway. The wondrous "downgrade" posted a few minutes after the company announces dire results isn't seen in quite the same forgiving light as was the case when the bull ruled. About time. Apologies for lengthy absence. New projects are keeping me away from both the pool halls and the net (g) It was a bit of a shame that I could not participate on the thread just as the market commenced providing justification for our mutually held bearish views, but one has to perform while the sun shines. Hopefully the time frees up a bit in the near term. Best, Earlie Incidentally,