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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clint E. who wrote (17871)	10/4/1998 6:13:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70281

Hi Clint, The weather has been gorgeous up till yesterday. Someone opened the clouds yesterday and it has been pouring buckets every since. The leaves have started to change colors and every thing looks great though. Do you have a dramatic change of seasons in Texas? Hmmm, if I did not have my charts I would have thought the market has been flat while I have been away. I will be trying to catch up on the news while I have been away this week. I don't plan to trade anything till after Black Tuesday though. A couple of interesting statistics. On Friday, 68 percent of all stocks were 1 standard deviation (STD) below their 200 day moving averages. This number peaked on September 3,1998 at 73 percent. It has never been this high in the 5 years I have data for this indicator. The next highest reading was 44 in December of 1994. On the flip side the number of stocks one STD above their 200 day moving average on Friday was 13 percent. The local minimum was 7 percent on September 1,1998. It have been this low before 9 percent in July of 1996 7 percent in December of 1994 7 percent in July,1994 11 percent in April,1994 The important point here is that the market has possibly changed character. The fact that the number of stocks 1 STD below their 200 day moving averages has reached a number not achieved during the previous sell offs we have seen the last 5 years indicates a potential change in investor sentiment. I don't discount a spectacular short term rally though as we are technical way undersold. Harry