Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MileHigh who wrote (7844)	10/3/1998 10:58:00 PM
From: wily	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Mile High, I hope nobody is paying attention to this. I am trying to compare my numbers to REH's on his website, and I see that he has based his projections on total semi-sales (rather than just DRAM) and has adjusted for taxes and R&D (40% and 20%). He has layed out in table format scenarios for the size and year to year growth of the semiconductor market, and different possible rates of penetration of that market by Rambus technology. He has also built a table to show the resulting stock price based on the possible P/E multiples the market could give it. These are all in a conservative range (1-15), for a company in its mature years, past its period of market penetration. This is a very thorough and graphic layout of the Rambus potential. It answers my question about Rambus' extended future by pointing out that they won't be sitting on their hands, but spending 20% each year on R&D. I understand the calculation of EPS, but I don't understand 1) the two separate projections of the size of the semi market from year to year. For instance, for 1997 the upper scenario has the semi market at 136 billion, and the lower scenario has it at 51.2 billion. And 2) the calculation of stock price which I would think is arrived at by multiplying EPS by P/E, but the numbers in the boxes don't jive with the columns and rows. I see how this is an effective way of graphically displaying the projected future of the stock, but I don't understand some of the particulars. REH? mckenziewebster.com wily

To: MileHigh who wrote (7844)	10/4/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: REH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Date Close Diff Date Close Diff 05/14/97 30.25 05/14/98 42.69 -0.31 05/15/97 31.50 1.25 05/15/98 43.38 0.69 05/16/97 31.75 0.25 05/18/98 42.88 -0.50 05/19/97 30.38 -1.38 05/19/98 42.06 -0.81 05/20/97 32.25 1.88 05/20/98 41.91 -0.16 05/21/97 30.75 -1.50 05/21/98 40.44 -1.47 05/22/97 31.25 0.50 05/22/98 39.44 -1.00 05/23/97 30.75 -0.50 05/26/98 37.88 -1.56 05/27/97 31.50 0.75 05/27/98 36.91 -0.97 05/28/97 30.75 -0.75 05/28/98 39.88 2.97 05/29/97 30.00 -0.75 05/29/98 38.66 -1.22 05/30/97 31.50 1.50 06/01/98 36.75 -1.91 06/02/97 32.35 0.85 06/02/98 36.94 0.19 06/03/97 31.63 -0.73 06/03/98 35.75 -1.19 06/04/97 30.75 -0.88 06/04/98 36.50 0.75 06/05/97 30.38 -0.38 06/05/98 37.25 0.75 06/06/97 30.38 0.00 06/08/98 36.75 -0.50 06/09/97 31.00 0.63 06/09/98 37.13 0.38 06/10/97 30.25 -0.75 06/10/98 36.38 -0.75 06/11/97 31.50 1.25 06/11/98 36.06 -0.31 06/12/97 31.63 0.13 06/12/98 36.94 0.88 06/13/97 33.25 1.63 06/15/98 36.88 -0.06 06/16/97 36.25 3.00 06/16/98 37.88 1.00 06/17/97 39.38 3.13 06/17/98 39.00 1.13 06/18/97 43.75 4.38 06/18/98 39.38 0.38 06/19/97 51.31 7.56 06/19/98 38.81 -0.56 06/20/97 47.63 -3.69 06/22/98 46.50 7.69 06/23/97 44.50 -3.13 06/23/98 57.50 11.00 06/24/97 48.13 3.63 06/24/98 59.81 2.31 06/25/97 48.00 -0.13 06/25/98 56.06 -3.75 06/26/97 47.13 -0.88 06/26/98 56.63 0.56 06/27/97 45.75 -1.38 06/29/98 61.50 4.88 06/30/97 46.50 0.75 06/30/98 61.13 -0.38 07/01/97 47.38 0.88 07/01/98 59.88 -1.25 07/02/97 46.06 -1.31 07/02/98 59.00 -0.88 07/03/97 46.50 0.44 07/03/98 57.63 -1.38 07/07/97 48.00 1.50 07/07/98 55.25 -2.38 07/08/97 49.75 1.75 07/08/98 59.94 4.69 07/09/97 48.50 -1.25 07/09/98 58.25 -1.69 07/10/97 47.88 -0.63 07/10/98 58.81 0.56 07/11/97 46.88 -1.00 07/13/98 60.75 1.94 07/14/97 46.13 -0.75 07/14/98 58.75 -2.00 07/15/97 46.75 0.63 07/15/98 64.00 5.25 07/16/97 47.25 0.50 07/16/98 64.25 0.25 07/17/97 45.50 -1.75 07/17/98 61.25 -3.00 07/18/97 44.75 -0.75 07/18/98 58.75 -2.50 07/21/97 52.00 7.25 07/21/98 56.63 -2.13 07/22/97 50.50 -1.50 07/22/98 57.13 0.50 07/23/97 51.00 0.50 07/23/98 55.13 -2.00 07/24/97 50.75 -0.25 07/24/98 55.13 0.00 07/25/97 49.00 -1.75 07/27/98 56.00 0.88 07/28/97 50.25 1.25 07/28/98 55.00 -1.00 07/29/97 55.00 4.75 07/29/98 52.50 -2.50 07/30/97 53.69 -1.31 07/30/98 61.88 9.38 07/31/97 55.25 1.56 07/31/98 56.94 -4.94 08/01/97 54.88 -0.38 08/03/98 55.00 -1.94 08/04/97 59.25 4.38 08/04/98 52.88 -2.13 08/05/97 67.00 7.75 08/05/98 53.00 0.13 08/06/97 70.63 3.63 08/06/98 54.88 1.88 08/07/97 70.38 -0.25 08/07/98 54.25 -0.63 08/08/97 72.38 2.00 08/10/98 54.31 0.06 08/11/97 84.50 12.13 08/11/98 60.75 6.44 08/12/97 65.00 -19.50 08/12/98 59.50 -1.25 08/13/97 67.75 2.75 08/13/98 58.75 -0.75 08/14/97 67.94 0.19 08/14/98 61.63 2.88 08/15/97 69.50 1.56 08/17/98 61.63 0.00 08/18/97 72.25 2.75 08/18/98 64.13 2.50 08/19/97 75.88 3.63 08/19/98 64.38 0.25 08/20/97 82.00 6.13 08/20/98 64.13 -0.25 08/21/97 83.81 1.81 08/21/98 62.75 -1.38 08/22/97 81.50 -2.31 08/24/98 64.00 1.25 08/25/97 83.06 1.56 08/25/98 66.25 2.25 08/26/97 79.50 -3.56 08/26/98 65.13 -1.13 08/27/97 78.75 -0.75 08/27/98 60.91 -4.22 08/28/97 77.75 -1.00 08/28/98 55.75 -5.16 08/29/97 79.50 1.75 08/31/98 47.75 -8.00 09/02/97 77.25 -2.25 09/01/98 49.88 2.13 09/03/97 78.75 1.50 09/02/98 50.00 0.13 09/04/97 77.25 -1.50 09/03/98 50.25 0.25 09/05/97 76.38 -0.88 09/04/98 50.25 0.00 09/08/97 71.38 -5.00 09/08/98 53.25 3.00 09/09/97 71.88 0.50 09/09/98 50.69 -2.56 09/10/97 70.25 -1.63 09/10/98 49.00 -1.69 09/11/97 65.63 -4.63 09/11/98 52.25 3.25 09/12/97 68.63 3.00 09/14/98 52.25 0.00 09/15/97 67.19 -1.44 09/15/98 51.50 -0.75 09/16/97 66.13 -1.06 09/16/98 52.00 0.50 09/17/97 65.50 -0.63 09/17/98 51.13 -0.88 09/18/97 64.69 -0.81 09/18/98 53.25 2.13 09/19/97 62.63 -2.06 09/21/98 58.13 4.88 09/22/97 57.44 -5.19 09/22/98 62.50 4.38 09/23/97 52.63 -4.81 09/23/98 61.25 -1.25 09/24/97 56.75 4.13 09/24/98 62.88 1.63 09/25/97 58.88 2.13 09/25/98 65.00 2.13 09/26/97 55.38 -3.50 09/28/98 63.13 -1.88 09/29/97 57.00 1.63 09/29/98 66.00 2.88 09/30/97 55.63 -1.38 09/30/98 64.00 -2.00 10/01/97 55.63 0.00 10/01/98 59.75 -4.25 10/02/97 56.69 1.06 10/02/98 62.00 2.25 10/03/97 55.63 -1.06 10/06/97 52.44 -3.19 10/07/97 56.00 3.56 10/08/97 58.31 2.31 10/09/97 56.88 -1.44 10/10/97 55.50 -1.38 10/13/97 54.75 -0.75 10/14/97 52.50 -2.25 10/15/97 58.44 5.94 10/16/97 54.50 -3.94 10/17/97 55.50 1.00 10/13/98 0.00 10/20/97 56.88 1.38 10/14/98 0.00 10/21/97 57.44 0.56 10/15/98 0.00 10/22/97 59.00 1.56 10/16/98 0.00 10/23/97 57.63 -1.38 10/17/98 0.00 10/24/97 54.88 -2.75 10/18/98 0.00 10/27/97 48.63 -6.25 10/19/98 0.00 10/28/97 52.50 3.88 10/20/98 0.00 10/29/97 52.63 0.13 10/21/98 0.00 10/30/97 48.81 -3.81 10/22/98 0.00 10/31/97 49.75 0.94 10/23/98 0.00 11/03/97 52.75 3.00 10/24/98 0.00 11/04/97 51.25 -1.50 10/25/98 0.00 11/05/97 52.00 0.75 10/26/98 0.00 11/06/97 50.75 -1.25 10/27/98 0.00 11/07/97 48.63 -2.13 10/28/98 0.00 11/10/97 45.00 -3.63 10/29/98 0.00 11/11/97 43.69 -1.31 10/30/98 0.00 11/12/97 40.06 -3.63 10/31/98 0.00 11/13/97 42.06 2.00 11/01/98 0.00 11/14/97 42.75 0.69 11/02/98 0.00 11/17/97 42.13 -0.63 11/03/98 0.00 11/18/97 41.63 -0.50 11/04/98 0.00 11/19/97 43.00 1.38 11/05/98 0.00 11/20/97 60.94 17.94 11/06/98 0.00 11/21/97 61.25 0.31 11/07/98 0.00 11/24/97 57.13 -4.13 11/08/98 0.00 11/25/97 56.63 -0.50 11/09/98 0.00 11/26/97 55.50 -1.13 11/10/98 0.00 11/27/97 55.81 0.31 11/11/98 0.00 11/28/97 57.00 1.19 11/12/98 0.00 12/01/97 57.00 0.00 11/13/98 0.00 12/02/97 55.50 -1.50 11/14/98 0.00 12/03/97 53.88 -1.63 11/15/98 0.00 12/04/97 51.13 -2.75 11/16/98 0.00 12/05/97 52.13 1.00 11/17/98 0.00 12/08/97 56.13 4.00 11/18/98 0.00 12/09/97 52.28 -3.84 11/19/98 0.00 12/10/97 50.00 -2.28 11/20/98 0.00 12/11/97 46.50 -3.50 11/21/98 0.00 12/12/97 46.75 0.25 11/22/98 0.00 12/15/97 48.19 1.44 11/23/98 0.00 12/16/97 49.31 1.13 11/24/98 0.00 12/17/97 49.13 -0.19 11/25/98 0.00 12/18/97 46.50 -2.63 11/26/98 0.00 12/19/97 48.81 2.31 11/27/98 0.00 12/22/97 49.13 0.31 11/28/98 0.00 12/23/97 47.00 -2.13 11/29/98 0.00 12/24/97 46.88 -0.13 11/30/98 0.00 12/26/97 46.50 -0.38 12/01/98 0.00 12/29/97 46.19 -0.31 12/02/98 0.00 12/30/97 46.75 0.56 12/03/98 0.00 12/31/97 45.75 -1.00 12/04/98 0.00 01/02/98 50.00 4.25 12/05/98 0.00 01/05/98 53.13 3.13 12/06/98 0.00 01/06/98 52.63 -0.50 12/07/98 0.00 01/07/98 53.75 1.13 12/08/98 0.00 01/08/98 54.81 1.06 12/09/98 0.00 01/09/98 52.00 -2.81 12/10/98 0.00 01/12/98 48.00 -4.00 12/11/98 0.00 01/13/98 52.94 4.94 12/12/98 0.00 01/14/98 54.00 1.06 12/13/98 0.00 01/15/98 49.88 -4.13 12/14/98 0.00 01/16/98 48.44 -1.44 12/15/98 0.00 01/20/98 49.00 0.56 12/16/98 0.00 01/21/98 47.38 -1.63 12/17/98 0.00 01/22/98 45.19 -2.19 12/18/98 0.00 01/23/98 42.00 -3.19 12/19/98 0.00 01/26/98 41.00 -1.00 12/20/98 0.00 01/27/98 41.38 0.38 12/21/98 0.00 01/28/98 43.94 2.56 12/22/98 0.00 01/29/98 43.75 -0.19 12/23/98 0.00 01/30/98 43.75 0.00 12/24/98 0.00 02/02/98 44.75 1.00 12/25/98 0.00 02/03/98 43.19 -1.56 12/26/98 0.00 02/04/98 43.50 0.31 12/27/98 0.00 02/05/98 43.72 0.22 12/28/98 0.00 02/06/98 47.75 4.03 12/29/98 0.00 02/09/98 47.50 -0.25 12/30/98 0.00 02/10/98 48.31 0.81 12/31/98 0.00 02/11/98 50.13 1.81 01/01/99 0.00 02/12/98 50.88 0.75 01/02/99 0.00 02/13/98 49.38 -1.50 01/03/99 0.00 02/17/98 46.13 -3.25 01/04/99 0.00 02/18/98 46.44 0.31 01/05/99 0.00 02/19/98 46.56 0.13 01/06/99 0.00 02/20/98 45.13 -1.44 01/07/99 0.00 02/23/98 47.75 2.63 01/08/99 0.00 02/24/98 46.94 -0.81 01/09/99 0.00 02/25/98 47.56 0.63 01/10/99 0.00 02/26/98 46.19 -1.38 01/11/99 0.00 02/27/98 44.75 -1.44 01/12/99 0.00 03/02/98 44.81 0.06 01/13/99 0.00 03/03/98 44.75 -0.06 01/14/99 0.00 03/04/98 44.25 -0.50 01/15/99 0.00 03/05/98 42.75 -1.50 01/16/99 0.00 03/06/98 43.63 0.88 01/17/99 0.00 03/09/98 42.13 -1.50 01/18/99 0.00 03/10/98 42.75 0.63 01/19/99 0.00 03/11/98 43.13 0.38 01/20/99 0.00 03/12/98 43.00 -0.13 01/21/99 0.00 03/13/98 43.00 0.00 01/22/99 0.00 03/16/98 42.88 -0.13 01/23/99 0.00 03/17/98 40.94 -1.94 01/24/99 0.00 03/18/98 40.97 0.03 01/25/99 0.00 03/19/98 40.75 -0.22 01/26/99 0.00 03/20/98 40.88 0.13 01/27/99 0.00 03/23/98 40.19 -0.69 01/28/99 0.00 03/24/98 40.63 0.44 01/29/99 0.00 03/25/98 41.63 1.00 01/30/99 0.00 03/26/98 39.00 -2.63 01/31/99 0.00 03/27/98 38.69 -0.31 02/01/99 0.00 03/30/98 39.31 0.63 02/02/99 0.00 03/31/98 43.75 4.44 02/03/99 0.00 04/01/98 47.00 3.25 02/04/99 0.00 04/02/98 46.25 -0.75 02/05/99 0.00 04/03/98 45.13 -1.13 02/06/99 0.00 04/06/98 44.44 -0.69 02/07/99 0.00 04/07/98 44.75 0.31 02/08/99 0.00 04/08/98 44.69 -0.06 02/09/99 0.00 04/09/98 44.25 -0.44 02/10/99 0.00 04/13/98 46.00 1.75 02/11/99 0.00 04/14/98 47.38 1.38 02/12/99 0.00 04/15/98 44.13 -3.25 02/13/99 0.00 04/16/98 43.13 -1.00 02/14/99 0.00 04/17/98 43.13 0.00 02/15/99 0.00 04/20/98 43.13 0.00 02/16/99 0.00 04/21/98 42.81 -0.31 02/17/99 0.00 04/22/98 43.44 0.63 02/18/99 0.00 04/23/98 42.06 -1.38 02/19/99 0.00 04/24/98 42.13 0.06 02/20/99 0.00 04/27/98 42.63 0.50 02/21/99 0.00 04/28/98 42.88 0.25 02/22/99 0.00 04/29/98 43.00 0.13 02/23/99 0.00 04/30/98 44.94 1.94 02/24/99 0.00 05/01/98 43.00 -1.94 02/25/99 0.00 05/04/98 44.56 1.56 02/26/99 0.00 05/05/98 43.63 -0.94 02/27/99 0.00 05/06/98 43.88 0.25 02/28/99 0.00 05/07/98 43.63 -0.25 03/01/99 0.00 05/08/98 44.06 0.44 03/02/99 0.00 05/11/98 43.66 -0.41 03/03/99 0.00 05/12/98 43.72 0.06 03/04/99 0.00 05/13/98 43.00 -0.72 03/05/99 0.00 mckenziewebster.com