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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (5790)	10/4/1998 12:45:00 PM
From: HiSpeed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

What do make of Friday's action? I was surprised PFE did not tick back into positive territory with the rest of the market.

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (5790)	10/4/1998 8:37:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Report: October 4,1998 The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged. Invest only after conducting your own research. Note: possible PFE buying and selling strategies are discussed in this report. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ Peabody Peak/Valley Status Peabody Peaks and Valleys During the 1990s (Updated 10/04/98) www3.techstocks.com Peabody Model Trend Prediction Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend : After reaching a Peabody Peak on Monday (109.19), PFE followed the market down reaching a pending Peabody Valley on Friday (96.50). Da Model predicts PFE will head higher to a predicted Peabody Peak of 112.89 by October 16, 1998. Commentary 1998 continues to be the most volatile PFE year in this decade. The recent Peak of 109.19 was only 2.2% off the predicted Peak of 111.60. The current pending Valley of 96.50 was only 0.4% off the predicted Valley of 96.93. Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut-feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. ......................................PFE.........................% Chg from...............# Days .....................................Date.........Price.......Last Price (10/02/98)......From Today Last Peabody Peak:..... 9/28/98......109.19..........+10.2% ...................-6 Last Peabody Valley: ...10/02/98......96.50.......... -2.6% ....................-2 Pending Forecasted Next Peak....10/16/98.....112.89..........+13.9%............... ....12 Potential Peak Strike Price.............. 106.15...........+7.1% Forecasted Next Valley................... 91.68............-7.5%.................. (If Model is Wrong) _____________________________________ Peabody Peaks and Valleys History (1990-1998) Here is a summary of the 68 Peaks and Valleys in this decade: ........... #..............%..................#................% ......Peabody.....Average ........Peabody.......Average ......Valleys.......Decline............Peaks........Increase 1990.... 2......... -20.3%..............2...............39.4% 1991.... 0................-.................1................168.8% 1992.... 3..........-15.8%..............3.................16.1% 1993.....4..........-20.7%..............4.................23.3% 1994.....1..........-24.5%..............-...................- 1995.....2..........-10.2%..............3.................47.1% 1996.... 6..........-12.1%..............5.................21.0% 1997.....5..........-14.8%..............5.................32.3% 1998.....11.........-11.3%.............11...............16.4% ........... 34.........-14.3%.............34................28.4% ______________________________________________ Peabody Short-term PForecasts Peabody Short-Term PForecast (9/27/98): PFE: 106.69, DJ: 8,029: This should be a big week for PFE. A quarter point reduction from the Fed and end of the quarter window portfolio window dressing will pull PFE above 110 for the first time since August 4, 1998. Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: PFE just missed 110 on Monday before reversing with the market as a result of the disappointment on the quarter point Fed reduction and world economic concerns... Thumbs down Peabody PForecast Record (81 weeks): 51-30 (63%) _________________________________________________________ Peabody Short-Term PForecast (10/04/98): PFE: 99.13, DJ: 7,785: Recent action confirms one of the Model's principles that 80% of PFE's price trends results from market and Big Pharma pfundamentals..not directly related to PFE. Expect PFE to test the pending Peabody Valley of 96.50 before reversing and then head higher prior to the third quarter earnings release (due anytime from 10/08/98 to 10/14/98). Gut feel: Next Friday PFE will close above 104. ______________________________________________________ Peabody Portfolio Total return:........................................+54.1% PFE @ 99.13 Annualized return:...............................+51.7% % of Peabody purchases in the black... 67% (16 out of 24) The Peabody Portfolio consists of 24 PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. To date, the Portfolio has purchased 4,000 PFE shares at an average price of $64.33 (only 2.9% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 4,000 Average Price of Purchases:....... $64.33 Total Costs: ...............................$257,313 Total Market Value:.....................$396,500 Total Potential Profit:...................$139,167 Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 7/29/98 :........100 .........$110.50 8/05/98 :........100 .........$104.00 8/07/98 :........100 .........$102.63 8/11/98..........100..........$100.00 9/01/98..........100..........$97.63 Total:............4,000.........$64.33 ____________________________________________ Suggested PFE Buying Strategies The following suggested PFE buying levels are based on The Peabody Model. The buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time. :..................$94 to $97...........Updated: 9/27/98...Note: Reached on 10/02/98 (96 1/2) New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at near Peabody Valleys ________________________________________ Suggested PFE Selling Strategies Selling of PFE is recommended if a major PFE or market pfundamental significantly changes. If you need to raise capital by selling PFE, one suggested selling strategy is to set a 50% market sell order at a level 8% higher than the last Peabody Valley. After a period of one month evaluate the results of this action and consider selling the remaining 50%...once again at a level 8% higher than the latest Peabody Valley reached during that month. You should also take into account possible pfuture actions that may effect PFE trends (see below). PFuture Actions That May Effect PFE Trends Viagra Rx trends:..................................... Every Monday throughout 1998 News of Viagra adverse reactions and drug interactions: ...................................Throughout 1998 Major analyst's Upgrades/Downgrades............Throughout 1998 Initial reports of Viagra international sales.......October, 1998 Third Quarter Earnings Report.......................October 8-14, 1998 PFE R&D Meeting........................................October 29, 1998 ACC/AHA Report on Viagra...........................December 1998 FDA Approval of Celebra...............................February 24, 1999 ED news in the media: ................................Throughout 1998 Japanese approval of Viagra .........................First half, 1999 _______________________________________________ Peabody V-Files Viagra sales for the second quarter, 1998 were $411 million, the highest recorded sales for a new pharmaceutical product during its first three months on the market. Analysts estimate that Viagra will have 1998 sales of $0.946 billion, a 30.5% increase over earlier estimates. ............................................1998 Est...1998 Est ...........................................(Billions)....(Billions)..... Comments NationsBanc........................$1.100.......$0.759...... $.205B (international) Credit Suisse First Boston.....$1.100.........................$1.7B (1999) Morgan Stanley....................$1.010..........................$4.8B (2004) Alex Brown .........................$1.000.......$0.750..... $1.2B (1999) Deutsche Bank ....................$1.000 ......$0.750..... $1.75B (1999) Gerard Klauer........................$1.000......$0.300.... $2.9B (2000) Gruntal ................................$1.000......$1.000.... $8 B peak (2005) Alex Brown............................$1,000........................$1.2B (1999) Cowen...................................$0.850........................$5B+ (2002) Morgan Stanley......................$0.836.........$1.010........$1.7B (2000) Furman Seltz.........................$0.811........................Only $100M in 3rd Qt Bear Stearns..........................$0.800......$0.600 ......$200M in 3rd Qt Merrill Lynch...........................$0.750 .....$0625...... Consensus...........................$0.946.......$0.724 ____________________________________________ PFE Stock Splits PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE usually announces a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998. At the PFE Annual Meeting on April 23, 1998, the PFE CEO stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year. Bottom line, a 3-1 PFE split announcement will be made in late 1998 or early 1999. A request for additional authorized shares was apparently not made by the Board on July 23, 1998. Useful PFE Links -3 year PFE chart versus the Dow growth. control.bigcharts.com -6 Month PFE Chart with Da Bollinger Bands Playing 207.95.154.130 -5 Year PFE Price Chart news.com -Peabody PFE Price History (1987-1998) (Updated: 9/03/98) www3.techstocks.com -Compare PFE with Other Stocks and Indexes quicken.com The Market Environment -Briefing.com- Reviews current market environment briefing.com -World Markets quote.yahoo.com Investment Advice -26 Weeks to Successful Investing- IBD ibd.infostreet.com - 8 easy ways to lose your shirt in stocks usatoday.com