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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Metcalf who wrote (5450)	10/4/1998 12:42:00 PM
From: sam	Respond to of 6136

My guess is that AGPH will seriously consider being acquired if (1) the price is TOO good to pass up, or (2) they feel there is a better alternative to Viracept on the horizon.

To: John Metcalf who wrote (5450)	10/4/1998 11:11:00 PM
From: billkirn	Respond to of 6136

John: I don't think AGPH will sell out any time soon. They may consider a large investment and position by a large pharma company but I get a strong feeling the team wants to build their own company with there unique culture. It would reduce the risk for our investments but it would really reduce future growth potential. However, if Peter can get a valuation that reaches about half way to the 5 year expectation of $200 to $300 per share, I would expect a deal. So, my guess is that he will hold out for at least $100 per share. That is a value of around 3.2 Billion. If Dupont takes a 50% position they will need to invest around 1.5 billion in either money or product. I like the possibility but I don't think Dupont can justify this. Bill