Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : ZOOM : is the Best / Most Underpriced Stock on Nasdaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Leo Mitkievicz who wrote (2262)	10/4/1998 3:23:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2493

Leo: Yup I think analog modems are kaput over the next few quarters. Just guessing, I see this playing out something like this: q3 average to good (slight optimistic bias here) q4 very good q1 next year good q2 next year tailing off to ok q3 next year tailing off badly ... The only hope is that with everyone reducing chipsets and with a lot of people still at 14.4/28.8 and a lot of people having given up on these companies there may be a chance for a small surprise for some meagre profits and thereby a stock price move(my ZOOM portfolio needs it). (My concern is what is next on the horizon for these types of companies.) (The other thing that may give a boost is that the FCC is thinking about revising those silly 56k limits and upping it to 64k. If they do it soon there is a shot that with software upgrades the average 56k connection goes up from today's 47Kbps to say 55-60Kbps which would be VERY good. Another interesting thing in analog's favor is that the v.90 code looks more robust and that people with the 56Kflex and x2 implementations are seeing about a 10-15% increase in true connect speed - again a good thing for word-of-mouth advertisements.) [My sense is that there was some holding back because of all the line problems that were so well advertised - that is 56k is really 56k* where the * means 43k on average. Now it is about 47-48k based on your article and from what I have read elsewhere.] ---- I agree absolutely DSL is a shambles. And it is easy to spot - very few DSL installations and much more cable modem installations. Cable modems have mo. and DSL is stuck running in place. Just off my head: CABLE modems DSL residential momentum still bickering AT&T buyout of TCI good as it provides cash CHEAPER service CHEAPER modems consumer initially thinks 1.5M tiered pricing - 256 or 512k does so FASTER on first appearance not look as sexy as 1.5 M (even though it will go down w/ sharing but it is early and no one cares) SIMPLER - AOL does not need AOL needs to do a national rollout a national rollout to try it out so there is a time factor Insight selling cable modems Insight not selling DSL modems etc etc Best guess is that we start seeing cable modems in retail sometime in Q1/Q2 1999 though I might be a bit optimistic if I think this will be a national rollout or anything like that - but I could get lucky. For DSL I would guess we could push it out to around late 1999 or early 2000 to see a national rollout - though if the phone companies get very scared we could see things accelerating quickly. Funny though but I would think that longer term that DSL, with its dedicated access, is the way to go - certainly it makes sense for companies and certainly it will get cheaper and the cable modem subscribers won't like it when they see 50% saturation on their shared lines which are constantly on and their $40 service will go down to 256KBps during peak times - you'll see all the cable modem subscribers switching over to DSL then! As far as my bonehead investment in Mr. ZOOM not sure what happens starting mid next year since revenue might shrink fast - BUT there may be hope that: (1) they have got some OEM deals since OEM revenue at 56K is still very very viable and they have the LU chipset (2) video cams do indeed take off with the faster processors and the fatter bandwidth (I think I could get really lucky here but I don't want to count my chickens here) (3) those inexpensive dialers actually start selling in reasonable volumes - again this could be a surprise if they target to the right markets (Damark et their ilk) (4) Cable modems start really taking off and they use their 7000 retail outlets to good advantage (a stretch but they likely should be introducing a cable modem in Q4 I hope!) Shane.