Who will vote?
Clinton's fate--and that of his
party--rests with a handful of voters
who must decide whether to stay
home or head to the polls
BY MICHAEL J. GERSON
U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT
Eleven days from the end of Congress and a senior
Republican aide pauses from returning piles of
phone messages to summarize his party's
endgame strategy: "The election looks good. Don't
rock the boat. Vetoes make Clinton a hero, so
you've got to give him anything he wants." Yes,
even if it that means dropping tax cuts and abortion
restrictions. "I'm sickened," he adds, "by the price
we're going to pay."
Over at the White House, researchers comb GOP
legislation for veto targets, trying to pick symbolic
fights on Social Security, the environment, or
abortion designed to inject some enthusiasm into
dispirited Democrats. But it is proving hard to
attack a retreating opponent. "It looks like the
Republicans want to sue for peace on a number of
issues so they can get out of town without
damaging themselves," says a disappointed White
House official.
This is the paradox of the waning Congress: Bill
Clinton, at the low point of his presidency,
dominates the legislative agenda, while the
Republican majority ducks. Why? Because neither
side is focused on the struggles of this week but on
the election next month. And both are trying to
shape the answer to the most important question of
the political season: Who will show up to vote?
Not, if projections hold, two thirds of America. In
fact, the group that will actually decide November's
election--likely voters in key races--is minute,
probably fewer than 5 million total. This
mini-electorate is composed not of independents
and moderates (who often stay home without a
president on the ballot) but mainly of hardy
partisans. The Christian Coalition and the National
Rifle Association. Trade unions and abortion-rights
activists. Whichever party turns out the best share
of Activist America will win. "It's all about turnout,"
says a senior Clinton adviser.
For the moment, this gives Republicans a distinct
advantage. Though President Clinton is riding high
in national polls, it makes little difference in the
turnout showdown. His admitted immorality has
angered and united the entire Republican base,
energizing, in particular, the religious right. "The
intensity level is at a fever pitch," says Randy Tate,
executive director of the Christian Coalition. "You
don't want to stand between an evangelical and a
voting booth."
Nightmare scenario. At the same time,
Democrats fear the scandal has left the Clinton
coalition depressed and divided. African-Americans
and union members give Clinton high marks for his
job performance, but will they vote? Will soccer
moms and senior citizens feel betrayed by Clinton
and stay home? It is "marginal Democrats" who
worry House Minority Leader Richard Gephardt,
raising the prospect that "our voters are . . . split on
this, and Republican voters are not." Practically, he
says, this means the Democratic congressional
candidates running even 10 points ahead in general
polling might be at risk on Election Day ("On
Politics," Page 34). One reason seems to be the
increasing concern reflected in numerous polls over
the perceived decline in moral values; Rep. John
Linder, the Republicans' campaign strategist, says
party polling shows a 3-to-1 preference for
Republicans among voters who identify moral
values as their No. 1 issue. Add to this a
Republican money advantage--GOP campaign
committees have raised $236 million compared with
$146 million for the Democrats--and the president
faces a nightmare scenario: disastrous Democratic
losses that push members of his own party to turn
against him after November 3.
This prospect is dictating the last-minute
congressional strategy of both sides. For
Republicans, the challenge is to sit on a lead, using
pre-emptive concessions to deflate fights before
they start. "The president is really looking to divert
attention right now. I think it would be foolhardy to
assist him in any way," says Sen. Larry Craig,
Idaho Republican and member of the GOP
leadership. "Being conservative doesn't mean being
stupid." On Friday, the word went out from
Republican leaders that all controversial policy
riders on GOP bills should be quietly strangled.
Surrenders on abortion, the environment, and tax
cuts are justified as "small potatoes" compared
with possible House and Senate gains.
In a year when legislative accomplishments have so
far been limited to passage of a highway bill and
IRS reform, prospects for new approaches to
housing and banking policy have dimmed. Long
gone are issues Democrats once hoped would
define the election and generate turnout: regulating
tobacco sales and advertising, reforming HMOs,
raising the minimum wage, and hiring 100,000 new
teachers. GOP-driven attempts to block federal
approval of the abortion pill RU-486 and extra funds
to clean up toxic waste have also vanished.
For the president, the turnout battle is a constant
companion. He pores over briefing books packed
with the demographics and issues in virtually every
congressional district he visits. He is convinced that
the way to motivate core Democrats is to push
issues of everyday concern while portraying the
impeachment inquiry as a diverting, partisan
gambit. The mantra will be "Progress over politics."
Under this theory, Clinton's pronouncements about
preserving the budget surplus to save Social
Security are targeted at the pocketbooks of the
elderly. His threatened veto of the farm bill--he
wants even more emergency aid--is aimed at
farmers who vote in some key rural districts.
Various education reforms play to suburban
mothers, who have been at the core of Clinton's
coalition. So does his patients' "bill of rights" and
threat to veto looser environmental restrictions.
Hillary Rodham Clinton is also thought to be a key
weapon in energizing these women, or at least in
moving them to vote for Democrats as a better
policy alternative to the GOP, no matter how much
they oppose the president's private conduct and
lies.
Undecided is how far President Clinton will
eventually go in throwing Democrats red-meat
rhetoric aimed at bashing the GOP. White House
strategists remain concerned about doing anything
more to rile up their opponents, yet last week they
privately conceded that their polls show GOP
conservatives are so fired up that the president has
little to lose. That debate won't be resolved until
after this week's expected impeachment inquiry
vote, when White House advisers hope the political
dynamic will be clearer.
That vote by the full House is the most immediate
cause for worry. Clinton aides estimate that as
many as 50 Democrats may vote for the inquiry,
taking the edge off Clinton's claims that
Republicans are on a partisan witch hunt. The vote
count will offer a preliminary look at just how
frightened the Democrats have become. While the
president can cling to his approval ratings,
candidates must face voters. And right now, voters
do not appear to be as forgiving as the polls.
With Kenneth T. Walsh, Major Garrett, Franklin
Foer, Michael Satchell, David Whitman, and Kevin
Whitelaw
usnews.com |
