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To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (20586)	10/4/1998 3:22:00 PM
From: scotty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116756

Morgy_Dog.....I remember Yeltsins "global warfare" comments during the Iraq showdown...Analysts discounted his warning then, but I thought he was serious......BTW, I'm expecting a crash in the broad market, could be caused by an unexpected event like a war.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (20586)	10/4/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116756

Bobby thank you for an easy question....:) Yougoslavia was a hot bed of Europe for many centuries...If you recall World War I started in Serbia, Turkey (Otoman Empire) and Greece were fighting war long before...Slovenia, Serbia, Bosnia, Croatia, Macedonia and Albania are divided by religion, allegiance and hate for many years...The country was held together by iron fist of the communist dictator Tito untill his death and as was widely anticipated his death brought an explosion of violence as leaders were unable to hold country together....Slovenia the most Western and affluent part escaped war because it is separated from Serbia by Croatia, has no significant Serbian minority and has close ties with West.. Croatia (catolics) stand occused by Serbians (true to large extent) with colloboration with Nazis during World War II (many Serbian resistance fighters died at the hands of Croatian colloborators) Bosnians on the other hand were part of the resistance... Kosovo (muslim albanians) are the poorest part Serbia would not let them go because the are afraid than next is Macedonia-and that is a rea issue-Many forces are in play there-Turkey and Greece would likely go to war on opposite sites of conflict (both are NATO members) that would be a nightmare for Europe.... Serbia is a slavic nation (just like Russia and of course has close ties with Russia...Leaders in Russia can afford to betray Serbian brothers as much as say American's betray British over Falkland's The war in Yougoslavia is a nightmare (look at history) Germany culd really never concur the country (terrain and fierce nationalism) Any attempts to place troops into hostile quigmire is ill advised..Vietnam would seem like a child-play...

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (20586)	10/4/1998 4:56:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116756

Brazil elects to fight currency carnage By Eric Ellis, Sao Paulo Brazil's premier business magazine Exame seems in little doubt what's in store for Latin America's biggest economy as it goes to the polls today (Australian time). Estamos fritos? (Are we fried?), its front cover asks of 160 million Brazilians who fear they will become the latest developing market to be slayed in the currency carnage sweeping the world. And as if the point needed stressing, Exame illustrates with a fried egg – intact this week, but what happens a month from now? President Fernando Henrique Cardoso will today become Brazil's first democratically elected president to take a second term. After a difficult campaign that has defied conventional political wisdom, a win for social democrat Mr Cardoso is not in doubt – last polls on Saturday showed a late surge for Mr Cardoso to 49 per cent, about 25 points better than his nearest challenger, the tired old leftist Mr Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, making a third bid for power. What is crucial is whether Mr Cardoso will need a run-off – he must poll more than his dozen challengers combined – and whether his allies will prevail in simultaneous Senate, Congress and State gubernatorial polls, the biggest election in Latin-American history. Inflation-shy Brazil is delicately poised. After the recent Asian and Russian economic meltdowns, Mr Cardoso faces extreme pressure to devalue Brazil's currency, the real, and stem the near $A1 billion-a-day capital outflow that threatens to wipe out the huge gains made since coming to power with a radical anti-inflation program in 1994. Like many of its failed Asian counterparts, Brazil labours under a $US60 billion ($101 billion) current account deficit, almost 8 per cent of GDP and the union movement claims unemployment has rocketed to 18 per cent this year. A Cardoso election promise to create eight million jobs seems virtually forgotten. Brazil has lifted interest rates to 50 per cent and run down its foreign exchange reserves from $US75 billion to $US45 billion to defend the real and keep inflation at bay. Mr Cardoso seems set to ask for an unpopular $US25 billion to $US30 billion relief package from a Washington-led International Monetary Fund to fend off new post-election attacks, possibly as early as this week. At the Washington meeting of G7 finance ministers on Saturday, both US President Bill Clinton and Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin pledged strong US support for Brazil and the Cardoso camp, who have campaigned on exposing Brazil further to the world, and to the storms that threaten Latin America, which has so far largely avoided Asia's turmoil. "The international community is very supportive of President Cardoso's reform program and is very much oriented to being helpful," Mr Rubin said, after the G7 meeting, which included Brazil in its talks. In his last election rally on Friday, Mr Cardoso, whose popularity and reputation as the only man to save Brazil improved as the country's economy worsened, made a spirited plea for international support. "I don't promise an easy future. Brazil cannot isolate itself from the rest of the world," he told cheering supporters at a massive rally in the country's business centre, Sao Paulo. "We accept our share of responsibility, but we demand that those who are responsible for this turbulence put their own finances in order and keep the world from becoming a giant casino." A friendlier Congress will allow Mr Cardoso and his fiscal team of Finance Minister Mr Pedro Malan and Central bank president Mr Gustavo Franco a mandate to push through delayed but key economic reforms demanded by the IMF and the private sector. In Washington, Mr Franco pledged a sharp cut in spending to narrow Brazil's runaway budget deficit in return for IMF aid. He also vowed not to institute Malaysian-style capital controls or devalue the real. Spurred on by Washington's renewed support, Sao Paulo's bolsa rallied 8 per cent on Friday to correct a 10 per cent slump on Thursday, taking Wall Street with it. But Brazil's market is still about half its July-August level when the world's biggest privatisation, the $US25 billion sale of the telco carrier Telebras, ushered in what seemed a new era of prosperity for the country. "We all know that if Brazil does fail, the problems we've got in global markets, which are severe enough anyway, are just going to get even worse," said Mr Geoffrey Dennis, a Brazilian specialist with Deutsche Morgan Grenfell. afr.com.au